Okay, there's time left today, but is this going to plunge into the $3's? Doesn't seem likely. The question is, suppose it stabilizes somewhere in the $4.20-4.60 range over the course of the next week or two. Could you still take a position and make out?
I'm not sure. Yes, 50% of the pre-announcement damage remains, but it seems to me the question is, what amount of distribution will be restored once the deal closes? At that point I'm guessing the 60 cents will not be supported by the properties remaining, after all, presumably the EBITDA on the midstream segment was greater than the interest costs, wasn't it? Now, of course at that point the company will be under-levered, and presumably will use the borrowing power of the reserves (the bank's willing) to acquire additional DCF to support that distribution or higher, the whole point of this deal. Assuming 60 cents ends up being the Q4 annualized rate, and you could imagine this threatening the high $5's on a good run. You might want to stick around for that.
But you could also imagine them reinstating at a lower amount pending events. Suppose they said the distribution would start off at a dime, where would that price the units? More like $4, right? You wouldn't want to be around when that happened. It's a problem, if you've already wetted your beak, maybe it's time to leave the carcass and take flight. I mean, there's nothing wrong with a 10% 24 hour profit. Decisions, decisions.
for the time being, I can see this one trade roughly 4 ...........4.5
until further news,
looking out into the future just doesn't work. too many possibilities. investors getting spooked easily and overreaction not uncommon.
management action close to unpredictable with a questionable track record.
playing it safe seems to be the way to go for now, making adjustments as we see fit.
Well yeah, but you have to make a reasoned guess about the future in trading. Whaty'all think will happen assuming the deal closes and the distribution is initially reinstated at a dime? Just a guess of one of the outcomes of course.