I kind of inherited some shares in a regional bank (BOKF)....and they seem to be strong right now and I was wndering if your crystal ball says that they may be reaching a top (based on TA). Do you follow the sector.....and if so what do you think the future might hold?
The stock seems to run in almost exact parallel to the NAZ, which I thought strange for a bank stock. I guess the banks are borrowing money from the FED at < 1%, and from depositors at +/- 1%, and loaning it out at 5%-6%....so they probably have pretty good margins and healthy incomes and cash flows.....but I just find it hard to believe they will be bale to post solid growth for the next 2-4 years with where I think the economy is headed.
I'd love to hear your 2 cents if you'd care to take a 10-second read of the charts.
I guess I have wandered away from this board. I see that I posted here in July '03, but not since. All I can say is that BOKF has continued to move quietly higher, and the management at BOKF just does not seem to make mistakes. Many people think that the banking sector has had its run. So many regional banks have done very well. And share prices have followed. I see that I mentioned LFIN here about six months ago. It has moved up more sharply than BOKF. I know that there was more room for multiple expansion, and I guess the market agreed.
I have taken a little money off the table in this sector. But earnings seem not to be in trouble, so I am remaining in banks though the PE multiples seem high.
I have increased my position in the insurance industry. I like INHO, which seems very reasonably priced. I also like GFR for the same reason. I know that casualty insurance premiums have been rising, and I think that the legal system is not all that receptive to the claims of injured people these days, so the upper limit of exposure in casualty claims is usually lower than it used to be. I do not want to confuse anyone here. Neither INHO nor GFR is a casualty insurer. So I guess that this entry is a little bit of "stream of consciousness."
...thanks for your comments. This board is definitely not a hotbed of activity.
I watched the big run of BOKF last year, and then watched as it kind of peaked out.
Having seen other historical instances where the entire sector has caught a cold and suffered multiple contraction, I elected to sell about 3,200 shares and to keep 1,000. (I was somewhat skiddish with any stocks through the terrorism alerts, SARS, etc.)
My position had grown significantly from years back, and I found myself holding a position larger than most of the BOKF bank vice presidents. Communication from the company is non-existent, options are not available, so continuing to hold a large (for me) position seemed to require more faith than I could muster.
With the Colorado acquisition, and with banks looking like they might be in play as part of a consolidation wave, I guess I jumped out too early....oh well...
I just couldn't put my finger on how the banks are going to look as energy and commodity prices move up, and as we move toward a more inflationary environment.
Long story short, I think I knew I was in over my head so I opted to take some off the table.
Last year I re-deployed the funds in some energy companies that looked to have improving management stories and increasing dividends and looked like they had significant room for multiple expansion since they were trading near the bottom of the range of their peers. (APC was one).