DURABLE GOOD ORDERS FELL HUGE EXCLUDING 'SOFT' ORDERS FOR AIRCRAFT AND DEFENSE ! WIll you be snookered by the hedge fund sand pros on wall st again today ? Alcoa laying off thousands ! GM laying Off Thousands ! Lear Corp Laying off thousands ! Ford Laying off thousands ! International Paper warns Huge ! Plastics Maker Shulman Warns huge ! and now Monsanto laya a big egg ! BUT CAT will make their numbers (pro forma ?)
DOW 10,000 is coming maybe today !!!!! Did you see This ? I bet you didn't ! Almost all of the durable goods 5% order gain were orders for 200 jets at the paris air show !Take out those orders (which can be cancelled easily like air canadas) and it's shows a plunge in business investment of 2.3% ! Thats why the pros and crooks pumped while they sold off and will continue to sell off this overpriced market ! Look at cold hard facts and tell me what I am missing ! And check axp board for median housing proces droping 6% and FedX warning and more info on why upside is nil downside is huge for DD/mmm/GE and this overpcied market !
"Durable goods orders were up 5.5 percent in May, 4 percentage points higher than the forecast of 1.5 percent. Almost the entire increase was due to the 200 orders for aircraft received by Boeing after last week's Paris Air Show. Excluding transportation, the change thins to a drop of 0.2 percent. Going further into the core activity, things just keep getting worse as the figure drops 2.3 percent once defense-related orders are removed. Under the headline number lies an ugly landscape for business investment and more importantly, the interest rate outlook. While it's fairly set in stone that June's meeting will bring a 25 basis point hike, the prospects of any further tightening are dwindling."
"US durable goods orders weaker than expected By Christopher Swann in New York Fri Jun 24,11:41 AM ET
US durable goods orders were weaker than expected in May, providing some evidence of a slowdown in investment spending by businesses.
Overall, orders rose by 5.5 per cent. But this was largely due to a 165 per cent surge in civilian aircraft orders to a record high.
Excluding this notoriously volatile sector orders were down 2.3 per cent. Nondefense capital goods shipments - seen as a gauge of investment spending - fell by 0.7 per cent.
The greatest weakness was in computers, which fell 7 per cent. Machinery orders also declined, falling a more modest 1.9 per cent.
"The weakness in new orders suggests a slowdown in production over coming months," said Marisa DiNatale, an analyst at Economy.com, the consultancy. She added that there was some hope that this could be offset by the high level of orders that had not yet been fulfilled.
"Even Cramer is saying get into tech for the 2nd half of 2005. Tech is immune from this cyclical downturn. "
What cyclical downturn? The economy as a whole continues to expand. There are always month to month and quarter to quarter fluctuations in various segments of the economy. So what? You must distinguish between common cause variation (noise) and special cause variation (a general downturn). I don't expect a contraction (recession) until 2009 or 2010.
Cramer's track record is not good. He does not have credibility with me.