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Caterpillar Inc. Message Board

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  • alphahunter@rocketmail.com alphahunter Jun 11, 2009 5:00 PM Flag

    $50bn t/o in 5 years' time

    You're right and this is a helicopter view.
    They take each region by region, look at the need for infrastructure, expected GDP, public and private anticipated investment, source of finance, share of the market etc,.. and they get a number probably +/-15% at constant currency.
    This a very useful macro-approach IMO.
    Now I suspect that some people here are expecting too much and too quickly, e.g. we will get 2008's worldwide GDP in 2011, so here we go, $80 for 2011. They forget the used equipment/second-hand market, stock in the channel and second derivative of the end market.
    So $70-80 in 2013 not in 2011 IMO.
    That's a back of the envelop calculation, no time for a more refined approach.
    Now on the conf call replay of Brown-Forman.

 
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