It's not about today. It's about informed predictions for the next two quarters. All indicators are way up for that time span. Not that there won't be a couple of adjustments along the way, but at the end of the day, all should grow by 12% to 18% by 04/01/2010
Thought this would enlighten your hopes of a China building spree. The government is building infrastructure that no one uses to hold back massive inflation. Enjoy the video of those who have been and seen what is happening around the world. Granted, Brazil will continue in growth. China, India are cooling off. That is why Cramer grasp at straws of an Iraqi building boom for CAT. Ridiculous!
I am from India. Except IT outsourcing and BPO (which are saturating) there is nothing great about economy. Indian real estate prices may be one of the highest in the world. A decent apartment cost $200K where a decent home in US cost less than that. So as commercial real estate and farm fields. One acre farm with no water facility cost you around $10K where you can get similar farm for less in Iowa. Guess how much money a farmer will make on one acre for year... if he is super lucky $200/year. There is a bigger bubble in Asia and one day it will blow like any thing
China is still more than a billion people, with GDP growing at 8% per year. India, Brazil and Indonesia are all still growing. The world hasn't stopped just because there is a housing crash in the West. China's GDP growth this year is more driven by the Chinese consumer rather than by exports - they bought more cars than the US this year, and that was without "cash for clunkers".
You're talking about the US construction market only - which is probably less than a quarter of Cat business. The rest of the world is busily working it's way out of recession. India, China and Brazil are all still growing GDP this year. Cat is one of the few US businesses with a string footprint in all of these markets. Somebody is still obviously buying Cat equipment - $7Bn sales this quarter are going somewhere.