Must know that the stock has doubled in less then a year. It is NOT going to double again. It has a much better chance of going down 30% then going up 20%. The risk reward ratio is tilted to the downside. Average investors who like to buy and forget are going to get their butts handed to them. Traders on the other hand can make money getting in and out because they know to sell when things get too good. See you in the 80s soon.
Take a drive this summer and around the cities... I'm seeing CAT everywhere now with all the constructions. Get out of your house and witness CAT in the real world with your own eyes... they are part of your life!
You have simple logic behind your idea but its very flawed and here is why. Your whole premise is based on what this or any stock has done in the past. The reverse of your idea is whan a stock is way beaten down that once was way up is a good bargin or buy....again flawed.
Try to understand this. What INVESTORS both small and large who run the market lok for are two things. Earnings and guadance., One they are making money is one piece. The other is GUIDANCE....What are they goping to do going forward. Do well in these things and its up and up and up. CAT is hitting both these items. It is blowing it out of the park is whay its climbing and will continue to do so. Just like many sold AAPLE at 80 bucks and it went to 160...then 320 and now has a target at 500 CAT is hitting earnings and guidance.
Short or sell if you like. Its a rookie mistake in the face of pure facts that will kill you.
I only have one real suggestion for you...get some investing classes under your belt so you wont fall to these rookie mistakes you speak of.
Good luck young trader.
Other than PE, growth, and PEG ratios, the fundamentals on CAT are not even close to promising. More importantly, revenues are LOWER than they were in '08 (but higher than '09). As with almost all domestic stocks, the "gains" are due to cost cutting-not increasing sales. Yes, they'll sell some gear in Japan, India, and other developing nations, but so will their less expensive peers. Morningstar Stock Investor, April 2011 issue, has them at two stars (out of five possible), fair value of $91, and "consider buying" at $63.70. I crossed sectors to give you a relative perspective, choosing JNJ, another large, leading domestic corporation. M-star gives them five stars, fair value of $75, and consider buying at $60 (currently about $65/share). I'll stick with JNJ, MRK, CSCO, and all of the other deep values I've picked up while all of the "smart money" chased JPM, AAPL, CAT, SLV, GLD, COP, ad nauseum. I'll be very surprised if CAT is not down 25% from here by the end of the year.
Don't you ever look at growth? The profit went up over 400% and you are crying about the stock doubling! You are an idiot, sorry you are. This the biggest year in the 90 year history and next year is bigger, what are you blind major product is sold out thru next year?
I used to work in this industry and I know when its time to buy. We'll see $140.00 by year end. Mr Dewalt, said this isn't a bubble and he is exactly right. Earnings next year will exceed expectations. From the conference call
For more than two years, companies held back their investment. But now they appear to have no choice but to replace aging machinery, boosting Caterpillar's sales, DeWalt said. That means spending will likely continue as companies replace more vehicles and even expand on growing demand.
"Let's be clear: This is not some kind of bubble," DeWalt said. "We believe (companies are) essentially buying enough to keep their fleets from continuing to degrade."
CAT will continue to go up. I would of thought it stopped rising a year ago... but hell no, CAT moves on! This stock has been continuously on its 52 weeks high for over a year and there's no doubt the trend will continue for at least another few years. Especially with the high demand from developing countries such as Brazil and India.
Actually, CAT will be in the 40's soon. Revenues in 2010 were actually 17% lower than in 2008. Far better than '09, however, which is why all the idiots think it's still going up. This dog is right up there with AAPL, SLV, and all the other crap that's rose to the top of the heap for no apparent reason. One exception-CAT does make a good product, unlike AAPL. However, this fact does not justify a price higher than $50, based on long term trends and solid fundamental analysis.
Your prediction is so far outside any logic I have to wonder what is your agenda?
Can you like to quote anyone (outside of the mental ward ) that uses your "solid fundamental analysis" for your $40 prediction?
So I don't forget to sell... can you tell me when is soon?
Wrong again kid. Been wrong for what 6 months now? This is a long cycle play, you can make some money playing the short cycle like the last three weeks, but the long cycle is up for a couple years yet. The developing world is continueing to show massive growth. The real key going forward as they said in the conf call is when will North America really kick in? Mgt says they think it has started and that signals a huge opportunity. Insiders are saying $135 by year end. That may be conservative. Good luck, but be careful I think your playing this all wrong.