SHORTs benefited from a very negative media as well as the likellhood that some hedgies had to sell out. Bottomline, this stock should never have sold off the way it did.
While the western world is on the precipice of a rebirth as it addresses its own infrastructure, the rest of the world is ramping up there own modernization revolution which includes EVERYTHING! From tech to iNFRASTRUCTURE to exploiting their own natural resources.....which would include heavy/big machinery.
Consider this, every major city in the western world has buildings dating back decades if not a century! Hey this stuff was built well but it doesn't last forever as our bridges and soon, tunnels begin to give way not to overlook sewer systems older than any living person today! LOL!
Bottomline, the world will see alot of construction for many decades going forward.
All IMHO of course..............
It goes to show you that the Bears love Europe and what it does to all equities. Cat ignored them and performed the way it did in spite of what has been going on there. Goes to show you it is a great stock for a long term holder who is investing in companies and not just trying to make a quick dollar.
Would you like to help me understand where you get the 10% reduction in Cat's estimates? Cat says EPS will be $.25 higher than previous range forecast, with or without BUCY. Best quarter ever, period.
The analyst's lowered their estimates because now they're including BUCY in Q3 and year end numbers due to acquisition and integration costs. One time only charges that will go away next year as Cat had guided them to do. This is precisely why Cat went to pains to separate traditional Cat $1.93 and $14.6B from Cat+Bucy $1.71 and $15.7. The bar wasn;t lowered to allow an easy beat, it's as reduced to enable the addition of BUCY impact.
CAT never addresses the risks in their CC.
It's always "best quarter ever, rah rah 2012,", etc.
The truth is, if the US is tipping towards a recession as the ECRI indicates, and with China slowing, the risks to their forecast are great.
They should not just say exactly what Wall street wants to hear, they should be cautious, because the truth is, they really don't know how 2012 will play out.....
It's a forecast, i.e. opinion, not facts.
heavy equipment is not manufactured/tested/shipped in a short period of time.
China's backlog is thru 2012 and I expect anything else that comes along from Asia/India adds to that backlog.
Regarding the US, everything I have read says no new recession. Based on retail sales recently and others reporting this earnings season and at the FRONT EDGE of the Holiday spending season, followed by the smaller but certain back to school sales for college grads heading back.....well, I'm not sure your theory or fear is warranted.
My big issue is the unjustified sell off. I just bought more on the way down and lowered my cost average.
You seem more focussed on the MICRO while I tend to invest based on a more Macro premise. IE world growth will continue and approach levels never seen before! IE china/India....and a whole bunck of little nations climbing on board. Lets face it, the conveniences you and I take for granted in life in many cases have never existed in other nations, thus the success of American Fast Food.....cell phones...smart phones....medical innovations, the list is endless and both ENERGY and HEavy Equipment are going to be needed/used for decades to come. Infrastructure is everything when it comes to a nations ability to develop economic efficiency within. Let alone other benefits that come with that.....
All IMHO of course!
Actually, if you follow Caterpillar at all, which clearly you have not historically. They are traditionally, very conservative in any forward looking statements. The company has been extremely accurate in predicting the movements of economy (part of the reason they emerged from the most recent economic disaster so successfully). The reason for the "rah rah rah"ing for the past 5 years is because they have been kicking butts and taking names since the early 2000's. Maybe you should head over to your local internet and do some research.
Are you listening to CC, and are you the one not looking at facts. 1. Cat is not getting its growth in developed countries like US and Europe. 2. Us isn't showing signs of recession. 3. Cats backlog in China, is thru 2012 and how is 9% growth going to change that? and China PMI up 2 months in a row. 4. If it's always best Quarter ever, wouldn't you think they are right rah! rah! 2012 etc.
You need to understand what you are talking about, now before tomorrow morning, do you want to talk about CMI results?
The media, just can't put things in perspective, they are still talking about 2nd Q being bad, and it was great, they wouldn't listen to or grasp what RECORD BACK LOG meant, or what the top line is. Top line is what tells you how business is, not earnings. Earnings tell you what you profit out of the business climate, or how a company spends its money.