I thought everyone hated the update and considered it foolish. However, it seem that some enjoy it so here it is for all to see.
I will update this 3 times per week via email to anyone who wants to recieve it, info at the end of this post.
Understand Im a SHORT TERM seller of puts or fear. This update is both short and long term. So please don't post that now I think the market is going up short term and down in 4 years because the answer is yes.
dec 14 2011 elliotwave update
Crude oil down 5%, copper 4.5%, silver 7.6% three econimic staples are setting the pace as the crb index plunged back below 300 today and down more than 10%. IMO a much more pronounced drop should follow in the next few months.
We are in the 3rd of a third wave. As long as the dow stays under 12,284, KEY support is 11,630 which imo will be taken out with negative breadth to 11,232ish area. However, we are in a seasonal period in which "they" try for one last recovery high,key resistanc is 12,244-12420 should hold and signal wave 3 down. I can't show the chart however spy weeklys CLEARLY shows the danger.
Initial spy support is 111.50ish then the oct 4 low of 107.22 ish low as next support.
Treasuries settled lower than any time in 50 YEARS yesterday, DEFLATION is here to stay for years and this is bearish for all asset classes.
I am in short term 28 day T-Bills at 0. In the future 0 interest will seem like a gift as FEAR runs high and the media becomes DARK, investors will flee risk!
The dollar has rallied as I called UUP for at 20.12ish on this message board (which means nothing now) Dollar is beginning a LONG TERM BULL move UP. Do not enter now, wait for a pullback it is coming.
Gold lower to 1300ish, silver 22ish area.
IF you are going long imo the strategy should be to SELL covered PUTS to define entry and GIVE YOURSELF a 10-20% downside entry and collect income. ie-sell cat jan 75 puts collect income and WAIT, if you get it put to you then you saved 12 points from dec 13 close if not you keep the premium.
Could not post the charts here, sorry to write so long. I will be emailing everyone who asks on mon-wed-fri the updates it will come from email@example.com
If you want to recieve them just ask via this post and put your exact email, there is no charge for the updates.
For all those who want to laugh at this post be my guest.
For those of you who are trading I believe you will find these updates to be very important to your analysis and financial well being in ALL asset classes.
Lastly, Im in negotiations in westchester county outside of nyc to buy a 2500sf home for $140k all cash from BAC in a short sale that HAD a fair market in 2006 for $680kish.
After renovations of $50k imo its a fast $350kish sell in a neighborhood thats currently selling for $425kish.
Banks are cutting loses and crippling the comps for everyone in the realestate market. However, for those with cash IMO the opportunities are enormous. The realestate update will be emailed on the weekend IF you want to read that also.
good luck to all short or long
My email is my posting name @yahoo.com
I think people should be careful and add spaces if they post their exact email the google bots pick it up to send you spame.
I am not understanding your 0% treasuries .. and then you say 0% will seem like a gift? what am I missing.
Cramer said last night the 3rd thing he is looking for is that the markets revisit the Oct 2011 lows, which corresponds roughly to you saying CAT could revisit its lows last Oct .. though I believe CAT is stronger now and might now go that low (our only disagreement) .. Cramers 3rd leg is the market hits the Oct lows in general, not stock specific.
His 2nd warning was the FXE below 130. (walk to the exits and raise cash sign). 3rd sign, I guess is run for the exits? Though I would think by then its too late, so I am not sure what he means to do if the market hits oct 2011 lows. .. but its significant he was even talking about it (same as you predict). So you and I are not that far off, just as in regards to CAT in particular.
I feel compelled to point out what I feel is a small but significant typo in your post. Line 3 states that you are a seller of fear. I believe you intended to state that you sell ON fear. I point this out only because there may be some readers who get the wrong impression.
I'd like to receive your comments via e-mail Thanks