to commence after the close. Now, is the time to load the boat, lads.
She's steady as she goes. Competitive pricing, new product line, high productivity, all point in one direction.
C the "buy" recs and act accordingly.
"This year, everyone is expecting the same scenario, by the looks of this bounce. When everyone thinks the pattern will repeat (which is the SPY board bias), it wont."
You mean the market tanking again following this move or something else? Last year's pattern would be sell-off (from huge shorting), then market moves against causing rapid rally, then massive sell-off again. Do you mean that this scenario won't repeat? At this point we have heavy sell-off, recent/current rally, and now XXXXXXX. If the pattern doesn't repeat that means we continue moving higher against all the news? If that is the case, what the heck happens once people start seeing earnings come through with the effects of slower Europe and China and the US stalling? The "E" of the the P/E won't hold up and the market either stalls out of sinks again.
Last June, everyone got on the short-side in June, as QE 1 was coming to an end. Because everyone got on one-side of the trade, the market, of course, moved against them, big-time. I was short last June and got caught in the miraculous parabolic move, but I held my long term puts and made a bundle on the later slide.
This year, everyone is expecting the same scenario, by the looks of this bounce. When everyone thinks the pattern will repeat (which is the SPY board bias), it won't. Many stocks, most notably, the financials, are still in the basement. Oilies are bouncing, but no ST breakouts yet. I was looking at OXY this morning at the high, which did pull back, but I went with the SPYs. I logged on, just as the SPYs spiked at 3:05pm, then filled down 75%, then back up.
As for the FED doing another QE, well, that would drive oil back up to $114/bl. $5/gal+ gas would be the final nail on Obama's re-election.
The big boys are still pounding on the same DOW stocks, i.e. JNJ, MMM.
Much of the rest of the market is still idling at the bottom.
Yeah, I figured that G20 news would be rampant by now. Just enough of a distraction and hope-building to get things juiced for a while.
If I'm not mistaken, a good bit of the squeeze last June was built on hopes that Congress may have just possibly come relatively close to almost thinking about maybe doing something concerning the debt ceiling. Then, when everyone came to their senses, the market began to reflect reality once again. Not sure we're going to get something like again this summer unless the central banks actually do start printing again, but then the attention will return to the deficit here, the elections, things turning sour once again in Europe and China facing some inflation problems because all the speculators will drive commodity prices through the roof again on hopes of resurging global economies.
Hard to say where this is going. It's 100% squeeze.
I am 75% short in puts. I'll cover CAT tomorrow.
Today, looked like the old one-two, of a ST high, to squeeze the DOW back up to the previous high of 12650 (2nd test of the high).
For the SPX, we might see some resolution to the downside: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p54153762184
Talk about the G-20 will resolve things on the SPY board. Yah, sure.
The fact that gold is up, makes me think we could resolve to the downside, and not have the huge late June squeeze of June 2011?
Today's move on the indexes is a bit suspect as well. With the exception of JNJ and a few others, the volume was not very convincing of the jump. Got a few analysts this afternoon on CNBC and elsewhere saying that it makes the most sense to be "fully invested" going into this weekend despite what most people have been doing as of late, which is moving to mostly cash. Looks like some people need a bit higher price to unload at breakeven, or have made their gain and are looking to leave the bag in someone's hands.
In other news, Vanguard is closing their high-yield corporate bond fund to new investors because they can't keep pace with the huge influx of capital coming in. $2 billion was added in the last 6 months. This follows on the heels of T. Rowe Price closing two junk bond funds at the end of April, and on top of $14.7 billion being added to junk bond funds in the firs quarter, as per Morningstar. People are yield hungry going forward-- they need cash and security. Looks like the only stock market rally that is sustainable is this one, because there could be little end to the amount of cash from baby boomers, mutual funds, etc. etc. that will move into the sectors.
Who knows.. Maybe it's all just a dream.
If CAT was really going up, I would have expected it to boogy per the 3:05pm squeeze. It barely moved.
This "bull run" today, per the DOW is the big boys pushing up the same stocks, as JNJ (banging the sky), HSY, and especially, DIS, etc. When they want the DOW up, they bang JNJ up. DIS, a DOW component, has made new highs.
My guess is that this dead-cat bounce will resolve itself on the down side of SPY $134.
No, No- not a "call", but the "call" you made in this thread about CAT being solid. TOO much derivatives talk to have not made that clearer- my fault.
Any guesses to whether the market tumbles next week? Getting oftly overbought around here without being near the 52 week highs on the indexes. Talk of the printing presses is met with as much excitement in the markets as 1922 Germany. What happens if the Greeks vote to pull out, the yields in Italy and Spain skyrocket, the Euro tumbles, and the printing presses aren't seen as they are today (adding liquidity on top the markets) but desperately trying to fill a bottomless pit?
Printing money sure as heck did not work in the 1920s (and it is debatable whether people back then had a 100% understanding of the correlation between printing money and the strength of recovery or even the correlation between the public and market demand/sentiment, the printing of money, and prolonging of disaster that is fairly quickly followed by an actual bottom and improvement.
I'm roughly 12% invested in my main account currently. The rest of my accounts are sort of fully invested, but mostly in bonds and high-yield corporate, some index funds and international small-cap growth plays. Biding my time waiting for something good. "Surprised" to see how well the likes of T and VZ are doing... some of the last games in town to actually stock money away at a rate keeping ahead of inflation that will allow you to at least keep up some actual buying power going forward.
Until I see a real up move in the stock I'm staying short. If you look at the stock it's trying to tell you something. Just look a what ever chart you want, Lower Highs & Lower Lows, and no bounce on the divy increase, enough said!
What call?? I'll cover my CAT JUN12 puts for a $5K gain tomorrow.
I could give a chit about any fundamentals, but it's good for a lively meaningless discussion.
Added a few SPY AUG12 $137 PUTs today. Caught half of them on the 3:05pm parabolic spike on the SPYs.