I'm sure that every intelligent investor has made a future statement that has been wrong years down the road. As more information becomes available, the intelligent investor modifies his outlook. I don't see Rich saying it's a 109 dollar stock right now, so I'm guessing that he modified his opinion in light of news. I'm glad for his opinion, and I'm also glad that you pointed out that even the people who seem spot on can make large incorrect assumptions from time to time.
I'll say 93 dollars on 3/21. Market heads down, CAT has been beaten down and moves up on the upswings in the market, and stays steady during the drops.
This will fall on deaf ears mershaw, Tooth statements on here have all been bias to anyone who is more successful than him. Which in reality is everyone, but he will try to make you think is in the upper 95 percentile. Which we can't believe anymore, He's been trying to get Cat to go down for 3 years, and is #$%$ because he has a bias against large Corporations. He can't stand Rick S. on CNBC, but recites is rant everyday for an excuse for Cat staying up. Sooner or later he'll be correct and he'll be raving and bragging about it, but if the business cycle returns first you'll never see him, he never comes around when things look good.
Thanks but don't waste your time defending me to this knucklhead. This time last year Cat was approaching 52 week highs with an obvious blow out quarter on the hook. Record sales and revenues were forcasted for Q1 '12 and I felt there was a good chance that Cat would go 10-15% higher. I practically never make short term calls because there are way to many factors influencing short term price movements for me to ever totally grasp and I never trade short term as I'm in it for the long cycle trade. Cat's results were exactly as I had expected and the market as a whole swooned. So I got it wrong. I still own everything I did before it's just not worth quite as much. No running scared here.
BTW I didn't sell my house when it was going down in value either. I still own it and will until I think I can sell it for what it's worth to me.
I would say most investors have made more bad decisions than good ones throughout their lifetime. Its just knowing how to implement the good decisions to counteract the bad so in the end you have more money than you started with. And i see many people, and myself taking guesses on stock movements and prices and failing a lot. However, i have never seen a non spammer do the used car salesman pitch to sucker in the sheep at $109 when it was so obvious the market was collapsing. Hilarious.