CAT has near-term problems, but they're not going bankrupt. That doesn't mean the stock can't get hit hard, particularly if export markets tank. I wouldn't want to own it until the dust settles. If you don't want to pay the tax on a big gain, sit tight. Otherwise, I'd sell and stand aside for the time being. CAT has room to move a lot lower, but it's definitely not going bankrupt. Would I go short? NO! Patience will win in the long term.
If it didn't happen in '08-'09 during the worst recession since the 30's, why would it happen now? By the way Cat Finance was profitable in both '08 and '09. For that matter every year since their inception. You're dreaming.