I'm neither long nor short because I won't buy in a down market but there is very strong support at 36ish. If it breaks there, and that isn't defined by a 25 cent drop below or an intraday drop below as some ludicrous posters state, it appears to be headed south. I'd be VERY surprised if that happens because we had a massive volume shakeout pre-earnings. That said, it appears the only people back in are the day traders and when they sell, this uptrend could turn out to be a short term fake out.
Up 20% in one week seems to be a fundamentally good approach to increasing one's wealth.
Further analysis of the charts (when combined with intelligent analysis of the company's history of success) would indicate that additional gains are imminent.
Of course, no commodity gains in a straight line. Hope you are astute enough to take a position while there is still room for substantial gains rather than continuing to pontificate on the sidelines.
"Chi, you need to look a bit beyond the graphs to the reality behind the analyst recommendations for this stock. The projections are well-founded in this case. "
I used to trade fundamentally, too. Made some good money on stocks like ORCL, CSCO, etc. back in the late 90s. Then I got my eyes opened by a very astute technical trader. His favorite quote: "Charts don't lie, but people do". After the Enrons, Tycos, etc., came out with their phony numbers and screwed over countless thousands of investors, I joined the TA camp. Much esier to trust only what you see, not what people tell you. we are living in a society that encourages liars, especially those in the corporate world and investment arena. Much easier to ignore the lies and try to interpret a chart.
BTW, I don't have an "agenda" with SYNA. I just happen to be short at the moment and am trying to engage in civilized debate about the pros and cons of the stock's future.
All well and good. Right until IPOD and laptop sales slow and they miss there number and or lower guidance. Nothing goes up in a straight line. Like I have said before, probably a very good long term prospect. but for now I am looking at a weak market and a stock that will fill the gap before trading higher.
What if no one ever buys a laptop or listens to music or gets a new cell phone???
The sky is falling.
We are all going to lock ourselves in our huts and hide.
Be rational --
Incredible products. Excellent patents. Growing applications. Creative new apps with multiple new vendors. Consistently beats expectations. Sitting on a pile of cash. Extremely well-executed moves to this point.
SYNA is a gem by every measure. The only concern I have is the level of stock option dilution -- and so far growth has chewed up that issue.
What is not being taken into account is the growth in earnings over the past year.
The growth rate is phenomenal including positive earnings surprises of around +15% above estimates for every quarter of the past year and a half.
Current P/E is silly-low for a proven new technology that is having such rapid acceptance in new markets.
Revenue is coming from increasingly diverse streams. Laptops are increasing in sales. MP3 players are becoming ubiquitious, handhelds will have touch technology as one of the essential new "wow" factors. More to come. The controls on the Ipod will be shaking the design world for years.
Chi, you need to look a bit beyond the graphs to the reality behind the analyst recommendations for this stock. The projections are well-founded in this case.
The value and legs are there to make SYNA a long term win. Short-term tests of support only matter if you are day trading when the growth rate for a company is in this mode.
I hazard to guess that 140% return on investment that SYNA has earned for investors who got in at $15 in 8/04 is better than most traders saw working money in and out in the same period.
Did you earn 140% on your investments in the past 5 months? Doubt it.
Can't hide your short agenda behind your well-worded (technically half-correct) disquise.
Time to move on. SYNA is too strong for current holders to be influenced by your drivel. We know the potential for what we own.
Look at my original post. 36ISH.
Sorry, bdgross7. I guess I was too eager to respond. I get a bit annoyed, frustrated and defensive with the 99% of the longs who get so damn hostile to ANYONE who brings up the slightest negative thing about their "beloved stock"- especially the ones who try to shout me down with insults. DON'T TAKE IT PERSONALLY, GUYS!! I'm trying to talk about the stock, not your collective manhoods!
Apparently I think too highly of my fellow investors/traders. I thought most would be civil and reasoned about their long or short positions, but the vast majority of comments are the- "this stock is going to the moon" or "this POS sucks bigtime"-variety. Not much to discuss there. Why don't you guys quit the cheerleading and bashing and try to say something worthy of everyone's time and attention???
Nevertheless, I'll give it another shot since bdgross7 is at least doing SOME analytical thinking along with the cheerleading.
Your point is taken about 36ish being previous support/resistance the past few months. But I would refer you to the first 9 months of 2004 when SYNA traded in a range between 22"ish" and 13"ish". One could make a case that 18"ish" was a pivot point with the price oscillating through that several times up and down, similar to what you claim 36"ish" to be currently. I'm just playing the oscillation here at 36"ish". My opinion is that the gap under $35.00 is much more of a factor than the 36"ish" support/resistance level. Like anyone else, I'm just making an educated guess. If I'm right I make some money. If I'm wrong I lose some money. No big deal. There's always another stock out there with a good looking chart, short or long.
Just remember folks, don't ever fall in love with your stocks. Did that a few times in 2000 and got burned but good. SYNA is just another stock. It might turn out to be a MSFT,INTC or CSCO. Could turn out to be a Global Crossing or Enron, too.
<Insert sarcasm here> PS- thanks for the heads up on the Fibonacci retracements. I had no idea they had real numbers assigned to them!! Thought it was just some wild-ass guess. <End sarcasm>
Hey block head. First off, you should take your Ritalin because you can't take the time to read before you hit the respond key. Look at my original post. 36ISH. Do you understand what that means?
Secondly, if you cannot see support at 36ISHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH beyond the last week, you can't read a chart and pick support and resistance levels. The support goes back months and was hit on the way up and the way DOWN THE FIRST TIME. Fibonacci analysis is a little like witch craft. Depending on where you draw your marker, nearly any price can be 30, 50 or 60% from a bottom, top, pullback, runup and on and on. It's a good rule of thumb but not a bet the business indicator. Gee, I'm sorry. You needs SPECIFICS. It's 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8 and 100. That better?