Anyone who thinks the chart doesn't matter is misinformed. The chart shows the history of supply and demand. It's not fool proof though. News trumps trends. If this company's growth would begin accelerating to such an extent that makes the stock more valuable, of course it will go up regardless of the faulty base. As it is, there is not enough growth here to justify the current price tag so unless we get in a raging bull market, my bet is to the downside.
...and maybe you're right on the eventual downside based on growth. That fact I can get behind.
No matter, I made 50% on my upside options trade on this one and sold this AM. Don't really care where it goes from here, chart predictions or not.
Over time, past chart patterns dont correlate with future stock performance. Show me that the correlation is greater than 0.5 and I'll believe you, honest I will. I'm not picking a fight, just pointing out that you shouldnt put so much faith in charting.
There are a few patterns that "seem to work" and might have a slight statistical edge like a breakout to new highs on volume, but over all, chart reading to the Nth degree is a crap shoot. For example, a breakout to new highs is due to improvements in earnings or market conditions. Who needs a chart to see that? Ride the breakout! Stocks break out and double all the time without concern to what's on the left hand side of the chart or how hard it corrected previously.
Follow earnings trends and the trend of the market, cut losses short and you'll make a mint, it's just that simple. You dont need oscillators, MACD, wedges, pennants, stochastics or any of that high brow sexy sounding fluff.
As they say, past performance doesnt indicate future returns. They say that for a reason :)
On a pure dilution basis it should go down approx. 30% to equal the same market cap. Come August 15 we are all even again.
If it goes down more than the 30% I am buying!
So let me be clear. If it goes down that's OK as long as it is within the 30% range.