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Synaptics Inc. Message Board

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  • k5dvw k5dvw Aug 1, 2008 1:39 PM Flag

    SYNA flawed base

    Over time, past chart patterns dont correlate with future stock performance. Show me that the correlation is greater than 0.5 and I'll believe you, honest I will. I'm not picking a fight, just pointing out that you shouldnt put so much faith in charting.

    There are a few patterns that "seem to work" and might have a slight statistical edge like a breakout to new highs on volume, but over all, chart reading to the Nth degree is a crap shoot. For example, a breakout to new highs is due to improvements in earnings or market conditions. Who needs a chart to see that? Ride the breakout! Stocks break out and double all the time without concern to what's on the left hand side of the chart or how hard it corrected previously.

    Follow earnings trends and the trend of the market, cut losses short and you'll make a mint, it's just that simple. You dont need oscillators, MACD, wedges, pennants, stochastics or any of that high brow sexy sounding fluff.

    As they say, past performance doesnt indicate future returns. They say that for a reason :)

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    • And how do you presume that I prove to you that charts "work" more than 50% of the time? Most people seem to think that chart reading is about predicting with certainty what the stock will do next. That's part of it, but it's more about timing your entry and exit points and whether you should be short or long. Good luck to you.

 
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