EZCORP, Inc. Message Board
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Hey Junky!
And Garp and Qofslave.
Correct me if I am wrong please.
The increased quidance for the last year were as follows: Q2 18 days after quarter ended, Q3 3 days after quarter ended, and Q4 13 days after the quarter ended.
Also it looks like every time they increased the quarters guidance they increased the yearly guidance by less than or equal to that same amount. When of course if one quarter is better than expected most rational people would say maybe the other quarters will be better as well. This allows them to constantly low ball the numbers and then beat and in the Q4 case, destroy the estimates.
I think it is smart as the worst case scenario is they meet or just barely beat the low ball numbers and everyone is still happy. That being said, they will blow the numbers out of the water this year in my opinion so it just gives us lots of chances to buy in low before the break out up.
Also, it looks like in Q1 last year they did not pre-announce but just came out with earnings 24 days after the quarter ended.
Once again if you are a short out there please start shorting again. I will take your money with a smile.
Any pull backs to $45 or lower are a gift from god and probably only likely next week after the split as lots of silly people like to take one of their "free" shares and sell them. Even if we stick around low $50's I will be backing up the truck some more before Q1 results come out.
I suggest you all do the same, except the shorts of course.
Thanks ahead of time Junky, Garp and Q, you guys keep this board honest.-
EZPW has a track record of conservative guidance but note the runup in gold prices was a factor as to why EZPW beat initial guidance by so much. At some point the gold tailwind will turn into a headwind...
Rotunda concluded, "Looking forward to fiscal 2006, we expect to generate earnings per share in the range of $1.45 to $1.50. For our first fiscal 2006 quarter, we expect to generate earnings per share of $0.42 to $0.45...
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http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_E/threadview?bn=6557&tid=17972&mid=17972- 1 Reply to garp_trader
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ezpwjunky & garp_trader,
How do you see the next few months playing out? Obviously, the stock will split on Monday. This is new territory for the stock. They will pre-announce for Q1 2007 in late December/early January. I know a great deal of the stock's performance will hinge on the overall market.
Do you think they will raise guidance at the EPS report in January. I know junky has eluded to this in the past, but their conservative nature tells me they may not do this so early in the year.
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wdcrestzoo,
ezpwjunky has been here longer than anybody (he surely has the most profits) and I bow to his knowledge.
EZPW pre-announced last quarter on 10/13 (13 days after the quarter ended for Q4 2006) and books were closed. The firm guided between $.61-$.64 and the stock went up $6.12 on over 4 million shares traded. At the EPS report hey hit the high number, raised guidance for Q1 2007, and announced a 3 for 1 stock split and the stock sold off $3.12 on 2.4 million shares traded.
They pre-announced and guided higher for Q3 on June 30 (The day Q3 closed) and the stock went up $5.16 on 1.4 million shares traded.
I think they will pre-announce again for Q1 2007. I don't know if it will be a Christmas present or a New Year's present. It really doesn't matter as the bottom line is the company is going to beat the street by a good margin and the stock will respond.
I think there are traders shorting this stock at $50...big time! The shorts will get burned when the announcement is made. I agree with ezpwjunky in that it is a question of WHEN not IF this is going to happen.
I see the stock under pressure next week and staying in a range in the next few weeks ($15-$17). When they pre-announce it will go to $20 in 3-4 weeks.
Happy Holidays!
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http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/retail/10314848.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA- 1 Reply to qofaslave69
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thanks. I also bow down to the Junky and his ability to be correct time after time about this stock. I read his posts always. And Q, Garp and even Divi.
Divi mostly for sage advice but sometimes also good for a laugh too. He is like the old man in the commercials years ago yelling at his wife "slow down, you are driving like a bat out of haiti..you're going to kill us all!!" while the old woman is driving 15 mph in the breakdown lane. 30 years from now we should all strive to be like Divi but not until we are old and gray.
I get the feeling that if you want to get in before the stock hits $18 and never looks back, you have to buy before christmas. Is that your advice Junky?
What kind of weekness would you look for to jump in if you had more money to invest here? Anything less than $16??
The truck is parked and ready to be backed up but I need a good time to get in. Thanks
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