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EZCORP, Inc. Message Board

  • garp_trader garp_trader Oct 16, 2009 1:41 PM Flag

    EZPW TA looking good

    tiny purchase but at least the technicals are looking good (higher highs, higher lows, support at 20day ema); stocks move because the big boys buy/sell and they will normally know more than you...

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=EZPW&t=3m&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=e20&a=&c=

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    • Great thread...

    • Perhaps that recent pullback was a final shakeout as today EZPW broke into the high 14s for the first time since January...

      • 1 Reply to garp_trader
      • I believe the price target will get adjusted to $20 but given the sporadic technical performance of the stock and how the overall stock market can whip this stock around it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to take some off the table in the $17s. Obviously there are no guarantees this isn't just another headfake. At this point we all wish we had loaded up in the 10s but I did take some of my AEA proceeds and put them into EZPW.

    • I've been in EZPW for about 4 years and expect it will go up as long as the earnings growth continues. I believe the growth will continue with Joe Rotunda at the helm. I don't believe that it should be at 14 or so; it is worth much more than that. I agree that it should be $20 at a minimum and wouldn't be suprised at $30 - $40 during the next year or 2.

    • Garp, Hi...glad you are back (albeit in a small way). I don't understand TA stuff but I'll take your word for it being a nice trend.

      On the earnings side, I'm pretty certain that they'll have a very good quarter (and year end). Most people are worried that Cohen's $300k/month for consulting is bad news. I admit that I don't like Cohen's dipping into the EZPW free cash flow. On the other hand, he is a former investment banker and an M&A expert and they are doing a lot of deals. I think the increase in fees is probably a good harbinger for the quarter because Cohen only digs into the kitty when there is a ton of money being thrown off. Old timers will remember that about a decade ago when they were struggling he dropped his consulting fees to ZERO. A guy who lowers his fees to ZERO in tough times is unlikely to raise his fees unless things are very rosy.

      We'll know in a couple of weeks.

      • 1 Reply to ezpwjunky
      • Garp, Looks like we were both right...a great quarter and great guidance for FY'10 (which they are a month into already and thus already have a feel for how the Dec quarter will turn out).

        With current guidance and growth rates they have a silly P/E of less than 10 and PEG of about 0.3. Using typical metrics this could easily be a $30-40 stock.

        As I've said in the past, Rotunda wants to make this a $1b revenue and market cap company. There is absolutely nothing I can see that will prevent this from happening (he's good at deals and they are always immediately accretive). The only fly in the ointment was Obama and PDL regs. With current pawn deals and growth around the world the US PDL business is becoming less and less important.

        Add in the gold hedge and the dollar hedge (with foreign assets and earnings) and this baby is looking pretty sweet. I may add some more.

 
EZPW
11.00-0.14(-1.26%)Apr 23 4:00 PMEDT

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