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AdCare Health Systems, Inc. Message Board

  • homebuilder_watcher homebuilder_watcher Jul 15, 2013 4:28 PM Flag

    Comp for ADK? Assisted Living Concepts

    OK, not an exact match but close. TPG closed its acquisition of this public company for $280 million. ALC had 2012 revs of $228 million. Sound familiar in terms of ADK revenues? Oh, and ALC lost $26 million in 2012. TPG paid 1.2X revs, would value ADK at $18. Even at .8 revs about $14 a share for ADK. This stock won't be sticking around this price forever in my opinion.

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    • "not an exact match"???? c'mon, truthstretcher - uh, homebuilder. ALC ran an almost all-cash (private pay) ALF business (i.e., no waiting for your money), while ADK is an almost all-govt reimbursed & insurance (mostly medicare, medicaid and hmo/ppo) paid skilled and long term care company. how can you even compare the two with any conscience? also, look at age of assets and you have one company trying to appeal to private-paying clients and the other caring for sicker people using mostly govt benefits. again, can't see the similarity at all.

      • 2 Replies to loriskhireward
      • You also have to look at how much of the real estate they own versus lease. That drastically changes the valuation. You can't value these things versus market cap but rather enterprise value. Based upon the debt load this stock is pretty full at current prices. They have over $150 million in LTD and I'm not real sure exactly how many buildings they own at this point. There is really no way to value this thing until all filings are current but I'm afraid the picture may get uglier instead of prettier for these guys. Until we see the filings everything is speculation but you have to question any information that was provided when they start having to restate prior financials.

      • Sorry you can't see it. Chatted with a couple of IBs today and not totally different. Somewhat different? Yes, but not apples and oranges. THat is why I said even at .8 revs as opposed to 1.2 revs, stock is still worth $14. And, I doubt ALC had "hidden assets" on their balance sheet as ADK does.

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