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Medivation, Inc. Message Board

  • durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Dec 1, 2011 1:35 PM Flag

    Defying gravity

    I have liked this stock for some time but have to say I am baffled by it's steady rise. I have never witnessed such activity before. If the volume was higher I would suspect something is brewing behind the scenes. In any event my hopes to add a few shares on an inevitable pullback doesn't appear to be in the cards. Not that I'm complaining, it's been a great ride.

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    • Not much that could send it lower, or at least anything that could hold it down longterm. seizures were an issue at much higher doses(more than double the current dose) in a 2% of the study population and even then they could not prove it was the mdv3100 as the patients were on other drugs known to cause seizures. There have been no issues at the current dose and the FDA didn't see any risk in letting everyone take the drug, so I don't think we have much to worry about there. IMHO (and most of wall street's) the stock has not realized it potential for the current data. The lack of risk is what is holding up the stock.

      We should get a data update in February, depending on how much time we add to the average life, we may move much higher.

      Not sure when we will get the priority review date, maybe about the same time. If we get priority that will send us higher.

      We won't get it until 2013, but when we prove to be better than casodex 200 will be cheap.

      I would look for a swift takeout after launch in the 4 billion dollar range. MDV3100 could be the product that takes astellas to the next level. Honestly MDV3100 could make astellas a takeout target for someone like J&J. They are only a 17 billion dollar stock, that is an odd market cap for a biotech. They usually get bought well before a few billion dollars.

      The reason no one will touch dndn with a ten foot pole is because the margins on provenge make it nearly impossible to make a profit on. The pills cost half the price and show just as good or better efficacy.

      Hung knows what he has, it will be fun to watch it all play out. Would love to see a little bidding war like we saw for VRUS.

    • old_dogg thank you for your true comments, opinions and for providing us with factual statements. I've been buying the stock since it popped more than 100% about a month ago - with I had bought below that :)... what are the near term catalysts that can send the stock higher or lower if they disappoint?

      I have a small gain on the stock so far, but at what point/piece of news do you either buy/sell more?

      Thanks for your continued support here on this board

    • I don't post on onty, but I do keep a tiny amount of it just so I pay attention to it. )) It is one of 5 stocks I own.
      It is one of the better prospects out there. Even if you are just trading.

      BPAX may see a pop, PIII efficacy will be good, but I think you are going to have to wait a year to see serious gains.
      I bought a little amrn at 7, just a little, I think they will get the patents. I won't bet the farm on it though.

      MDVN is about the safest money I see in the biotech market, I am slowly building a large position. Like a good poker hand, MDV3100 has a lot of outs. ))

    • Durangokidd...I have to agree with you. I had been hoping, against the defiance of gravity, that MDVN would pull back to the 30's. I am equally perplexed on the continued and constant rise over the past several weeks as I expected some portion of the gap to be filled and the prospect of a secondary (which I still believe would be prudent) to invite lower temporary prices. I am scratching my head over this one. I have read the comments about a buy-out, but I really don't think that would happen until there is greater certainty of FDA point is: why risk on the multi-billion acquisition with drugs in R&D, when you can wait for certainty, which may mean you are paying a market price, but at minimum, you are in first position to make it happen...just my opinion. Good luck.

      • 2 Replies to gogoderns
      • "I have read the comments about a buy-out, but I really don't think that would happen until there is greater certainty of FDA approval"

        A buyout cannot happen until launch, it is impossible. Not even approval could trigger a buyout. The drug has to be shipped to customers before the company can be sold.

        The odds of the drug not getting approval are almost 0. All we are waiting for is the additional data in Feb. That is why the stock is not pulling back. It is not a mystery. We will know for certain within 2 months if the drug will be approved and we should know if it gets a priority. If that is the case they will end the year with 300 million in cash and I don't think hung expects to be a company. but even if they are they will have 300 million in the bank and sales coming in. Not much reason to raise money, even if they do, at these prices you don't have to sell much.

        I guess myself and the most respected analysts on wall street are the only ones not surprised it is going up.

        It would not have surprised me if it went down, I would have liked to buy at lower prices. This is not a drug that has a lot of "ifs" when it comes to approval. Mostly just 'whens'

      • I'm just on the sidelines watching with interest...I wonder if any here are adding to their positions? In addition, the fact that shares are not available to short...curious as well. We shall see.

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