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Medivation, Inc. (MDVN) Message Board

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Nov 30, 2012 6:22 PM Flag

    Note to Durango

    Yes, it is embarassing to get drawn into responding to drivel. In the wake of the "lock in your profits before the tax rates go up" selloff, I did an analysis of the price action of the most successful biotech stocks...GILD, CELG, REGN, DNA (now part of Roche), etc. The pattern is that these stocks advance on the prospects of FDA approval. As they begin to attract the attention of the retail investor, they begin to have days where they trade sharply higher. If the drug is finally approved, there is inevitably a "day after hangover" and the stock drops back. (This used to happen after the initial runup, but now can even happen on the announcement itself.) However, the real appreciation in the stock takes place more gradually as the company moves toward profitability. Roughly, the appreciation in the stock price as it moves from losing 20 cents a quarter to making 10 cents a quarter is much more dramatic than the appreciation which takes place as it moves from making 10 cents a quarter to making $2 a quarter.
    The rapid jumps in stock prices upon approval often attract disbelievers and shortsellers. I myself, shorted into the initial runup of REGN, and at one time was actually up $4 a share. When that gain evaporated and turned into a small loss, I covered. But how much better than even my $4 short term gain would have been the $100 long term gain if I had been long the stock and weathered the brief selloff. In other words, even if you have to take a short term hit and listen to some of these guys gloat over their $4 profit, we should keep in mind that most of them will be too greedy to ever realize that profit and that the prospect of much larger longterm gains is infinitely more attractive. Incidentally, my profits in MDVN are susbstantial and long term, but not trusting myself to find the right reentry point, I only took profits in my IRA account, then bought it back and doubled my position there. In my taxable accounts, I would rather keep the capital working than give back 25% of my profits here. Good luck.

128.03-2.98(-2.27%)12:29 PMEDT