Purely technicals from here. Will fill the gap down to $20ish. Look at the chart...that's where the max 50 DMA is. If it goes down to the max 200 DMA, even lower. Looks much like the DNDN chart from $50's down. Unfortunately, I rode that one all the way down. This time around, I'm short from the mid-50's and will ride it all the way down. Not going against the trend this time around...learned my lesson.
Technical analysis with these early stage biotech stocks will not take you very far, I think. You may see some similarities to the DNDN chart from the 50's, but the two companies are totally dissimilar -- in fact, the only similarity is that they both treat the same disease. Provenge is an immunotherapy which involves a one-time individualized treatment. The consensus is growing that it is a useful therapy for all prostate cancer patients in that it seems to boost the effectiveness of other drugs later in the course of the disease. However, the problem of extracting each patient's cells, cultivating a vaccine specifically for that patient, and getting it to him quickly enough is expensive. At this point, DNDN is trying to reach profitability by closing facilities and cutting expenses. Xtandi is a one-size-fits-all drug which may find application at several stages of the disease and which may eventually be a maintenace therapy for a large percentage of prostate cancer patients. If you are determined to hold onto your short position, fine. But analogizing to DNDN is not a good reason for doing so.