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Medivation, Inc. (MDVN) Message Board

  • kmurphy0314@gmail.com kmurphy0314 Mar 2, 2013 4:12 PM Flag

    stock will go to 40

    Technically speaking. Pause then back to 47 or breakdown to mid 30s. They are not even going to make any money this year and so much can change by the time they "might" be profitable.

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    • Well, let's see how the options market is pricing that proposition. Even after the big selloff Friday, April 50 calls are priced at 1.20. April 40 puts are .83. Which is to say, there is a 50% better chance that the stock will be selling at above 50 than under 40 in mid April. (If I played options, I'd be tempted to buy a few of those calls.) Looking further out, the Jan14 52.50 calls are priced at 10 and the Jan14 40 puts at 5.05. Which says that the chances of the stock selling for 6.50 above its present price are twice as good as the chances of the stock selling for $6 below the present price.

      • 1 Reply to bearofbleecker
      • PS Regarding profitability, if MDVN simply sat on its present indication for CRMPC, they would become profitable very quickly. They are pushing into new trials for pre-chemo PC patients, pre-Casodex patients, breast cancer, etc.... all of which are expensive. ( Fortunately, Astellas will bear a lot of the associated costs.) If they achieve progress in these trials, they will become profitable on a scale which, IMHO, will eventually outstrip CELG. In the meantime, European, Japanese, or Korean approval for CRMPC could provide a substantial pop.

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