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Medivation, Inc. Message Board

  • durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 5, 2013 11:35 AM Flag

    Bearofbleeker your thoughts?

    The price seems to be defying gravity the last few days. What are your thoughts? I believe it's one of three things. People reading something into the Prevail announcement, European approval hopes or perhaps the current sales are taking off. The big boys have better sources for all of these things. Given the 98% institutional ownership of this stock I am guessing they know something us little folks don't.

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    • Wrong Again! After a 1000% 6 month rally since nov 2011 everything is priced in morons.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Prevail announcement and Adage Capital backing up the truck. I think they doubled their holdings to over 5% of the company over the past three months. Good stuff!

    • do you still have your SRPT )) I know I mentioned long ago, but it is finally getting some attention lately, ECYT is one my top picks. Will be highly volatile, but could be 50+ in 24 months

      • 2 Replies to old_dogg_with_new_trix
      • Hey, this is like a reunion. When this barely ticked down on Wednesday when the other biotech highfliers were tanking on light volume(PCYC down 3, even the mighty CELG down 3), you either had to conclude that this stock was being accumulated or that it was somehow flying under the radar of retail investors. (As we can see on this board, the only retail investors prowling here are the perennial "lame wolves" who lurk at the edge of the biopharm herd hoping for the next AFFY.) There had been no immediate reaction to their announcement that the interim results of PREVAIL trial would be, as expected, opened this year. The only thing that caught my interest was their statement that the endpoints on progression-free survival had already been met, which suggested the possibility that they had been able to demonstrate superiority to Zytiga. The three possible catalysts you cite for the recent strength - strong results in PREVAIL, European approval, or some indication of strong sales - are the logical possibilities, I think. I see some anecdotal evidence on the PC blogs that Xtandi is already being used in the UK, and I think eventual European approval is a foregone conclusion. Since Xtandi has already taken over the "refractory to Zytiga" segment, any big jump in US sales would depend on urologists prescribing it off-label in the pre-chemo market, which I think unlikely. In short, I think the interim PREVAIL results are looking good, and perhaps this is reigniting speculation about an Astellas acquisition.

      • Old dogg, good to hear from you again. I had bought a couple hundred shares of SRPT based on your advice without having spent more than a couple of minutes looking at the company, planning to do more research when time allowed. A day or two later while sitting in a boat fishing my smart phone alert gave me a nice surprise and as I recall the price tripled in the blink of an eye. I didn't feel like adding any at those lofty levels and ended up selling what I did have in the upper 20's. I was happy with the profit and even happier my shares were in a Roth IRA so there were no short term capital gains taxes to worry about. I certainly regret not having been more agressive but am happy with what I made. Are you still following MDVN? If so what do you think of the recent gains?

41.17+0.55(+1.35%)Nov 25 4:00 PMEST