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Magal Security Systems (MAGS) Message Board

  • reasontotrade reasontotrade Apr 24, 2004 10:03 AM Flag

    MAGS earnings

    April 28, 2004 is the earning report day. It will be out before market open. Two more trading days to that timing. So far MAGS had reported reportable orders during January thru March, 2004 total almost $10 million. Understood that there were orders or sales that MAGS can not disclose the clients identities and the amounts.However, the total sale of this nature will be reported at the end of each quarter. During Q4, 2003, MAGS did not issue any news regarding sales or orders, meaning that quarter all sales were secret sales. However, they reported a rtotal revenue of that quarter of $17 millions. MAGS is not a company like ASKJ not making money until last quarter. MAGS has steady business and report positive earnings the past years. So, it is not a good comparison. Not even comparing MAGS to TASR.
    MAGS could report a better than expected earning for Q1, 2004 next wednesday. And with the tighter seige of terrorist attack fear during recent months and future months as warnings from many countries' homeland security officers. MAGS naturally become a
    heavyweight play in this sector of business. They have 40+% world market share in their specialty niche products. In other words, MADS is the leader of this security business model. MAGS has subsidiaries in Canada, USA and Germany. At this point, It is like the Y2K
    phenomenon during 1999. Governments, militaries, strategic business installations, chemicals, petroleum, nuclear facilities, energy, water, churches, schools, warehouses, aminition depots, airports, seaports, trains stations, hospitals, aparment complexes, hotels, resorts and private properties are securing up. Expect MAGS business to fly this year. The Q1, 2004 will give just a clue of how 2004 overall MAGS revenue would be. Shorties would have to worry very much when it comes on earning report day. They must begin to cover on Monday and Tuesday. So my sentiment of next week is MAGS will be up and back to $30's. If ASKJ is at $41 now as they just turn into profit after being in business for so many years, Then I do not understand why MAGS should be less than that? Buy the way, MAGS has only 8 millions shares outstanding and insiders holding more than 54% of them. The small float will make it rally even much faster next week.

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    • how come the CEO sold so much stock in recent weeks ? maybe he knows more than you do ?

    • i just have one question: If earnings are going to be so good, why the tanking of this stock the last week? I believe the sudden run up might of been a fluke, I am a Strong Buy but believe come Monday if no green then I am out. Usually the stocks go up into earning then dive on earnings day (buy the rumor, sell the news) this is opposite so go figure.

    • Hello, Reason to trade.. What a great post.. I do not post a lot of messages.. I have however done my homework.. Right now I have taken a giant leap of faith with MAGS.. I have quietly been adding to my holdings at the price dropped. And yes I am now using margin.. I know it could back fire and blow up in the face..You see I am willing to Die in order to Live.. I have faith in my convections.. I have been wrong in the past, I have taken my licks and have somehow managed to still be here after living a great wonderfull life for 56 years.. MAGS is a sleeping giant... I have placed my bet. Long at this time.. MAGS may drop a little more in the next day or so.. If it does I will buy more shares realizing I may get handed my head back to me. That's the chance one takes when doing battle.. I have looked over my resources and I feel I can weather the storm.. This week is going to test a lot of people..Myself included.. I have learned much reading the board the past few weeks.. It's an on going education.. Good luck to all. Fish

    • Like you I expect earnings to be very good> I have a large buy order in at 20.00!!!

    • Indicators seem to show a possible BULLISH move up also. Seems to be OVERSOLD. Your point on the Shorts Covering: I think your correct. If they see the stock move above $25, the shorts will get very nervous and start covering, like what happen Friday morning around 10 am. It tested 26 and failed. Monday could test 26 again if it goes through, then it may be a wide trading range for Monday & Tuesday.

    • I appreciated your posting.

      I got in MAGS in March, and am positive on MAGS. I continue to DD and monitor MAGS.

      I just listened to last conference call. Many positives. However, I think I heard (not 100% sure) two things that might not be good for projecting the next earnings:

      1. I thought I heard the CEO said that not to expect 2004 growth as good as 2003 � might this have some implication on the �PE� for MAGS?

      2. CEO was asked if Q1 was tracking higher than Q1 2003. I could not quite make out CEO reply as it was short and quick. Maybe he said he could not comment on it, or maybe he gave a negative response. Did you get what he said?

      Thanks

    • Good post. Being a novice trader, explanations like yours and from others help me better understand the impact of short trading on low float stocks like mags.

      Question... since mar 24, insiders have filed intent to sell shares totaling 2.6 million shares. So I have to wonder... how do they sell that much stock without tanking it? Seems to me that the insiders figure that the news must be good enough to support the sale of a substantial portion of their holdings. Otherwise, they're just eroding their total net worth, no? Thoughts please.

      • 2 Replies to ideator2002
      • Mira Mag, had done selling 2.5 million shares
        of MAGS at the price range of $15 to $36 during the past 4 weeks. (So, the insider dumping effect is over.) The share outstanding is still 8 million shares. Insider holding% has decreased to only 32%.
        Now the float is about 5 million shares. Institution hold about 9% of the outstanding shares. However, during the past days, the trading volume is in the range of 3 million shares to sometimes more than 10 millions shares change hands during the day. That means a lot of shares were sold and bought over and over again in the same day. That means daystraders are in-play with MAGS.
        They were trying to make money long and short both way in the same day. Report said 04/22/04 significant institutional trading volume was seen. For the past 4 down days, total volume change hands was 3 times higher than the total float. MMs' are definitely into this stock (shorting?) Enough energy was stored during this past 4 down days. The energy will be release and upward turn is expected. The chart analyses predicted an upward resistance at $29 and a support of $22.9. Overall bullish trend has formed. Monday going to be a very interesting day.

      • Insiders were selling because the "price is high" as stated by the C.E.O. of the company. I think most of the insider selling is over however.

 
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