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Steel Dynamics Inc. Message Board

  • Box7 Box7 Jan 9, 1998 12:01 PM Flag


    This is day four of the big bang.

    As I write this, STLD is at 18, resting at about its 50 day moving average. Low volume.

    Overall, th market is breaking below its 50 day moving average, and looks like it would like to perhaps test its 200 day moving average again.

    Some of the steels are taking some day hits, like X, and IAD. But if you step just a little back, you'll see it just one of those little trading oportunities to buy some more.

    With regard to STLD, it is really unlike me to advertise for free such timing calls. This explosive big bang is the exception. On or about day 10 (that's trading days, friends) which translates to about Jan 19, STLD is to see about 22.

    To you non-techies (ignorance is bliss), 22 is close to its 200 day
    moving average.

    God Bless America

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    • I really appreciate your analysis, and sharing this on the STLD post. You are sharing your truth, with us.

      I agree. And that is why I want to emphasize to any less experienced investors, to be careful with leverage. Make sure you can take a dip, you always want to be strong money. Always negotiate from a position of strength, and the stock market is a daily negotiation.

      I think the steels are a solid investment. I trust that a lot of any bad news is already anticipated in these equities.

      There is no such thing as easy money, and the stock market is one of the most competitive arenas in business.

      But, just as this is winter and it seems like it may never end, spring and summer are around the corner. In other words, cycles
      are real, and yesterday's news is just that. We are all searching for tomorrow's new trend.

      During the Mexican crisis in 1982-3, bank stocks were dogs, when the dark clouds of the crisis blew out, the banks rallied hard. Chase , Citicorp, Bank of America, Chemical, they all rallied hard, and the pyschology made it hard to buy.

      I don't believe it is going to be easy to buy the steels, when you need to. That's the risk reward. And I am making a call, that this is the time. Let's see.

      I would like to add, no crap, that I use charts to find my bases. If for example, STLD sees a low of 15 in the next month or two, then I think that the next year is going to be bad for the stock.

      In other words, a new low is bad. It was good, last month. But not the way the formation is basing.

      Let me make it clear that my crystall ball tea leave analysis of the chart for STLD , and most all steels looks real good. And I'm sure a lot of smart chart guys may be wondering about this analysis. Trust me. I think that we may have a hell of a ride up real soon.

      I want you to know that this doesn't seem possible, given the chaos going on in the world, and this country, and the tough competitive environment in the industry. I know.

      But that is my call. That steel equities including STLD are now basing for a big move up. I want to reiterate that I may be making aposting three months from now, saying that steels are dead and dogs. I would do that with STLD at about 13. But I don't think the world is heading into depression.

      A note to anybody who has read this far. Thank you, and please feel free to criticize my thoughts . I always need challenge, because in the market, I sometimes take very different stances and have some very different thoughts. And they are wrong sometimes. I just learned that I am off to of all places and at my point in life, to Siberia, to look at an apportunity and to lend some help to some friends. Of all times, January in Siberia.....

      Anyway, I'm gone looks like for 2 weeks may be more. I'm sure some of you won't miss me, from some of the remarks that I have received. But I like you all, and really would like to see everybody make money. God Bless.

    • Hey Box 7,

      It's day 10. What happened to STLD @ 22. For us Non-techies, ignorance IS bliss. IAD looking good!

      • 1 Reply to Sellb4crash
      • Thank you, for the inquiry.

        I was expecting STLD to make an explosive move from 16 to 22, in 10 days. Then adjust, and test its support at about 18 1/2, before a rally to 30-35.

        What happened is that STLD tested its 50 day, and just sat there. This was happening when the market was dropping 100 points a day for a number of days.

        As I write this, STLD is at 19 (its close today). I expect it to see its 200 day moving average soon ( i would guess sometime reall soon like within a week or two). I think that there is about a 60-70% chance that this is a long leg move up, and that we may see 30 within 4 months.

        To the naysayers who have commented about positive talk, tyring to push stock prices up, I provide this comment. Those people that I have been mentored seem to appreciate the thought process, that forms the basis of my calls.

        I am new to the Internet , and these stock forums. It is amazing to me, the hostility that I am receiving. Perhaps that my communication is too bizaree or different, to some people who read my comments. It does hurt to read some of the postings.

        I am only trying to communicate my optimism to other fellow investors. I invested a good amount of money in STLD a couple of weeks ago, and am simply sharing my strong beliefs.

        I have a small paper profit of about 3 points in 2 weeks. I intend to make at least 100% this year.

        So, I really don't understand. Unless, these people are short sellers.

        Also, I am not a techie. Actually, earnings momentum is very positive for STLD. I believe we have had successively, four positve quarters of growth. And the balance sheet looks to be fine.I do rely on my interpretation of charts, long term, and short term, to help make decisions.

    • I'm glad to see there are still some survivors. Box 7, you've got a lot of balls, I'll say that. This is a great company, unfortunately the country/world is a mess. Herd instincts could make for a bad Monday. I hope not, 'cause I'm in STLD pretty deep. Love the the company but this could be a wild ride. Any feedback,......anybody?

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