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Goldcorp Inc. Message Board

  • seeing2004 seeing2004 Jul 24, 2004 9:39 PM Flag

    GG/McEwen on acquisitions

    Here's some of what McEwen has said:
    He would not make an acquisition that resulted in a flat or falling shareprice for GG. He would only acquire if it added to GG's shareprice (read=accreative).

    He said he wanted a 200K-250K Producer with a current cost of Production of no more then $150 per OZ and at least 8-10 years mining life. He felt he could lower the cost to $100 (Note: he is not looking for an Explorer to add the 200-250K Ounces. We all know it takes at least 5 years to go from a find to production.

    GG does invest in Explorers and has taken a controlling interest in several. GG has invested in Juniors that are nearing time of Production, though we have little info on their status.

    McEwen reitterated in this last CC that he likes to keep this info "close to the vest" (that's the secretive part of GG that doesn't help the shareholders but certainly can help him). It's one thing to keep info to yourself but quite another to either Buy or Sell the stock that you know things about that the Public doesn't, especialy Material (Important) items, something that could move or effect the shareprice like Key Executives leaving or Earnings about to drop a few cents because Mgnt. decided to start Expensing Options, taxes being shifted to 2004 after saying they wouldn't---should I go on---?.

    Many of GG's investments in 2003 Popped 30% or more on the day it was announced that GG invested in them. Anyone ever wonder if McEwen or "friends" bought in before GG? Part of the reason I have pushed for GG getting Authorization for a Share Repurchase Agreement is because the Investment Community jumps on McEwen's picks.

    What helps us more, GG throwing a million bucks or so at White Knight---that did zero for GG's stock---or GG issuing a Buyback? I guess McEwen can't do that if there is a "game" at play. He said GG's shareprice was "cheap" back at 13.7. I wonder what he thought at 10.11 and why he didn't put himself and Our (Shareholders) money in a position of Buying GG? That would be the best single thing he could do for the share price and holders; Unless he prefers the low price right now.

    I don't expect any acquisition before a trust conversion---other then someone else Buying Goldcorp and boy would I like to see that now but wouldn't have before Dec.

    BTW, where are all those new posters that appeard here on and near the Earnings announcment. Someone posted asking who in the world would have made all those recommends for a first-time (and only time) unknown poster who said GG should return to normal after the release. I wonder how many GG 'people' were in on that? The last thing we want is for GG to act 'normal' if normal refers to the past 8 months. We want to see the GG and McEwen that was blowing GG's horn all through 2003 but vanished, along with 2 Execs, after he sold.

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    • <<while the market may finally do what you want it to do, it will never do it WHEN you want it to.>>

      Amen!

      Theo

    • Perhaps, in order to save us all some time and grief, an attempt should be made to summarize the opinions expressed here in the past month or two. So, FWIW, let's begin:

      - Gold is in a major bear or bull market.
      - McEwen is wise beyond his years or dumber than a post.
      - McEwen had only the most sincere and high-minded motives in making his charitable gifts, or he scammed the recipient.
      - McEwen believes shareholders are lower than dirt, or he is working hard to maximize shareholder value.
      - There is something funny in the BAE, or there is not.
      - Withholding gold from the market is brilliant beyond belief, or vice versa.
      - GG has underperformed its peers in the last 8-9 months, or it is simply building a massive base from which it will spring like a phoenix from the ashes.
      - A gold trust, like the CanRoy oil/gas trusts, is a likely outcome, and the current low price of the stock is simply a product of a tax-saving scheme. Or it is not.
      - Jim Sinclair, despite being a hugely successful commodities trader since the 1950's and has called this move in gold surprisingly accurately, is really an idiot and his calls were just dumb luck, or not. (Same for Russell, Schultz and Dines, et al)
      - Finally, some posters on this board really do have valid opinions, base them on hard facts, careful research, personal knowledge of certain players and orebodies and the mining industry and the way things are done in a corporate environment - and SOME DO NOT.

      Whew! I could go on, of course, but that covers most of the waterfront.

      My advice to all - just have some patience here, take a long walk, climb a mountain, get away from the computer for a day or two, go to a ball game, whatever. Time is on our side and that of gold, and the companies that produce it.

      Above all, let's keep our discourse civil and remember, while the market may finally do what you want it to do, it will never do it WHEN you want it to. Thanks!

    • post_election_collapse post_election_collapse Jul 26, 2004 10:02 AM Flag

      Mcewen has received the highest praise for his charitable contributions and much of it came from seeing and nebozmi, plus many others. You would have to read the posts that surround the dates of such events. In fact seeing provided an almost word for word transcript of McEwen's interview in a strong defense of McEwen at the time of his sale of his position and the gold. He left a link to the interview also but gave a summation for those who didn't have the time to listen. I thinkthat's pretty well balanced and he does underline, as do most, that they aren't selling a single share and have added all the way down. He did say that GG woyuld be his number one selection if he was investing right now. You can't get much more positive then that.

    • The hospital which received his significant donation focuses on cell regeneration. His interest came about with the death of both his mother and sister within a short time frame and because of this he became more than a litle aware of what the outcome for his relatives might have been had cell regeneration been further advanced. So he gave to save others and maybe even himself (and me)some day. Does he not deserve praise for his generosity,no matter where the money came from. Would that there were more people willing to donate for purposes such as this. YOu too could benefit one day.

    • <<
      Charitable donations are tax credits � not deductions.
      That means they are applied like cash to the amount of
      taxes you pay. This makes them more valuable than tax
      deductions.
      >>

      Seeing, Sorry to correct you on this!

      Tax CREDIT is LESS valuable than tax DEDUCTION in Canada:
      - Tax CREDIT is calculated at the LOWEST tax bracket
      - Tax DEDUCTION is calculated at the marginal taxable income(ie HIGHER tax reduction)

      For Example : If a person has a income of 100,000, tax credit of 10,000 (use lowest tax bracket tax rate of 20%) and deduction of 10,000 (use tax rate of 40% for income from 80K-150K) - So in this case:
      - 10,000 tax credit yields 2,000 tax reduction (20%)
      - 10,000 deduction yields 4,000 tax reduction


      Cheers

    • "Hey, I took 'risks' and unloaded a lot a month ago, expecting more whacking, and still choose not to retake my full position. My choice, my potential loss or gain."

      Sorry I am not a trader. I like to invest for the long term. To each his own.

      When I decide to vacate, it will be permanent.
      I just don't like the kind of thing that has been going on lately and by lately I mean the last 7 months.

      Good luck toyou.

    • Skyhill:

      I don't know if you heard Mcewen's explanation for his sale and that of the stockpile but there was a Tom O'Brian interview where he addressed that. This, and other things like the Income Trust conversion may have kept many in. I was a big defender of McEwen's sale and still don't have a problem with it---unless there was a motivator behind it to help sink GG but we'll never know the answer to that.

      All I want to respond to, and I will not give all the details I know, is about the charitable donations. This will be more "news" to you if you are in the USA. In the USA charitable gifts are a deduction from your AGI (Income). In Canada it is a Credit off your taxes due. Here's some info from an e-mail and I'll just add that I give him the benefit of just wanting to share the wealth:

      >>>Was just curious about McEwen's charitable gifts,
      since they began Jan. 27, 2003 (the biggest chunk
      $10MM). Wanted to see how Canada treated them on
      taxes. It's a CREDIT, not a deduction. You get to
      subtract the amount from taxes paid, more if the money
      came from the sale or transfer of stock that gets
      sold.

      No way of knowing if McEwen had planned his selling as
      early as Jan. '03 but he must have had some motivation
      to give away $10MM in one shot.

      Maximize your charitable income tax credits.
      Charitable donations to registered Canadian charities
      or other qualifed donees earn you tax credits. But are
      you aware that charitable donations that total over
      $200 provide you with more of a tax credit because
      they're assessed at a higher rate? To maximize your
      charitable income tax credits, consider giving more to
      the registered charities of your choice this year.

      Charitable donations are tax credits � not deductions.
      That means they are applied like cash to the amount of
      taxes you pay. This makes them more valuable than tax
      deductions.

    • Cont'd from previous post....
      In reference to your comment on new GG posters , I�ve noticed a new influx of GG investors, and thus posters and do you blame them? With GG�s low p/e and superior fundamentals, GG is screaming out as a buy.The last thing they probably want to here is a bunch of frustrated past investors who are trying to create doubt in their recent decision/purchase.
      Knowing a lot of the facts but not all of them , and looking in from the outside can be dangerous, the other bits of the puzzle come as speculation and/or assumptions .These can often lead to conspiracy theories. You �.Seeing probably know more about GG than any 1 individual poster, but you are still an outsider trying to look in. You are only given enough info as required by the regulators for a publicly traded company, you are not privy to the bigger picture. If you as a public shareholder were privy to the bigger picture so would GG�s competition. End of rant.. tk

    • Seeing�I guess you hit a nerve with me on your last post, so I guess I have to vent.
      I hate micro analyzing a quality long term stock which I have researched and based my decision to purchase on superior management. If I have to question every move that management makes , I might as well have put the money in my own company where I have complete control .So now I�m forced to counter an attack to my investment . so here goes..
      On your comment of the payment of 03 taxes in 04.Yes the 4th qtr. financials did state that� taxes will be paid GENERALLY only for the current year� The 03 taxes paid in 04 were only for the gain on the unexpected gold sale, that had not been in their previous longer term tax planning. The operative word is �generally�.
      If taxes can be deferred� why wouldn�t you? Why not use the government�s money longer if possible. I suspect GG in general can no longer defer regular tax installments as they did in the past. I�m sure it wasn�t their decision to change this strategy but the governments. Defering tax is a good thing.
      On the criticism of McEwen selling the gold in Dec before the "promised" 500,000 oz mark, A captain of a ship should be able to replot his course if he sees bad weather coming.(ie.. a change in taxes and a stall in gold prices)I still have yet to here from anyone on this board; on how much this decision (in dollars and cents) supposedly lost GG. It�s great to say it was wrong , but� show me the money�Calulate where he would have been at the 500,000 oz.mark, taking all facts into consideration inc the extra provincial tax he would have incurred.
      On the issue of McEwen diluting earnings by holding back more gold,GG could not have been clearer on their last qtr. financials on the net effect on earnings. They repeated it constantly in their financials. They even went as far as putting together another set of balance sheets to illustrate the effect if they had sold the gold. Any analyst or even laymen could easily compensate/adjust for the lower earnings stated.
      I personally believe holding back more gold is now a great strategy.
      Not only is GG going to get more for their gold after the election is out of the way, they also have effectively deferred taxes .They also are storing their cash(cache) in a currency that is way better than a depreciating Canadian $.
      Their decision to expense stock options and stating them in the regular balance sheet of their financials, is a non issue. If you look back at their 1st qtr.2003 financials ,they already had been calculating separately the net effect( of options) on earnings at the bottom of their financials.
      An analyst (or investor if so inclined) should never just look at the �earnings number�. There are always pluses and minuses in any company that you have to adjust for to make each company comparison on an even platform. GG is now properly expensing stock options as their US counterparts/competition have been doing.
      In your reference to the� secret" way GG has been operating, publicly traded companies are at an extreme disadvantage to their private counterparts. When you spill your guts to the shareholders , you also are spilling your guts to your competion.In this current environment of extremely tight gold reserves, there is extreme competition with other companies when trying to expand your gold reserves especially with takeovers and/ or quiet share purchases of junior gold plays.Cont/d on next post

      • 2 Replies to tk34002002
      • tk3400, you have remained consistent in all your posts, regarless if you are critical or something said that is just informing the board about how others may be looking at McE or GG. Seeing's referrance to the statement about paying taxes in 2004 "only" for 2004 has been made many times. I guess you just made a mistake by using q4's report. That quote IS from GG and a word for word quote.

        One thing to remember with seeing, despite what you may view as posts against GG, GG is his number one position. He probably has a larger percentage of his investment dollars in GG than anyone else. Hec believes the same as you do that GG shareholders have a big payoff coming. I hope you recall his posts with positive comments and his view that while never viewing GG as a stock that was likely to make a huge move overnight or over a week, that he does view it that way now. He just doesn't know when but believes its all tied to the Trust conversion issue. I also listened to the CC and was surprised to hear that taxes for 2004 were going to be the same for 2003. I think most here who were shareholders prior to the selling of their gold can recall a jump up in taxes as a major reason given to sell in December.

        It might do you some good to acknowledge that there are some problems with GG and Mcewen now, that didn't exist before. I believe seeing is correct, though its just a speculation, about the income trust and mandatory tax payments on a conversion being the reason for the stocks action since december. I haven't sold a share. I added more. I believe GG will show the largest percentage gain of any other gold stock between now and december, but I can also be not too happy about what has transpired over these past months.

        I respect both your comments. The only difference I see in your posts is that seeing paints both sides, the positives and any possible negatives he sees that others can be paying attention to. You, on the other hand, are a one-note Charlie who consistently feels obligated to defend Mcewen.

        New posters here are welcome and expected. I hope you understand that many of us refer to the posters who appeared for a day or two right on or around the earnings release and a few times in the past and then vanished.
        GG wouldn't have such a low PE if it were a higher priced stock, so the more it drops the better the fundies look. Isn't it hard to explain GG being lower now than it was in May of 2002 at a $320 pog? We didn't even have the new shaft announced at that time and his link showed everyone a history of GG that they might not have known. This can only help others make a more educated decision and thats the point of putting up links like that. Believe me if his intention was to hammer GG he could have posted differently.

      • TK: Why the rant? What nerve am I hitting? These are the facts and when it's a guess or speculation I say so. You are keeping me up. I quoted GG. Look at Q3, IMHO the most misleading report they ever made. Q4 came out in mid Feb.
        This is from Q3 and unambiguous:

        "In future (from 2004 onward), Goldcorp
        will make tax payment installments for the current year only, and
        consequently future cash flow levels are anticipated to increase
        from 2003 levels (assuming a similar or higher gold price)."

        BTW, this was also the QTR when they said "if we sold all our gold this QTR, Earnings would have been 46 cents instead of 30 for the first three QTRs"

        Induicating 16 cents at a $364 POG

        You know we got 13 cents in Q4 at a $388 POG

        Please read the Q3 report. These are GG's words not mine.

        Good Night

    • Who is this joke sinclare. does anyone have a link?

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