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Goldcorp Inc. Message Board

  • dlh3943 dlh3943 Mar 9, 2005 6:40 AM Flag

    Unbelievable --Cannacord cuts GG target

    NEW YORK, March 9 (newratings.c**) - Analysts at Canaccord Capital maintain their "hold" rating on Goldcorp Inc (GG.NYS), while reducing their estimates for the company. The 12-month target price is set to $17.75.

    In a research note published yesterday, the analysts mention that the company's Wheaton River subsidiary reported its 4Q04 EPS ahead of the consensus. According to the analysts, Goldcorp's earnings are expected to be adversely impacted in 2005 by an anticipated reduction in the commercial production at the company's Amapari and Peak mines. The EPS estimates for 2005 and 2006 have been reduced from $0.59 to $0.57 and from $0.76 to $0.72, respectively.
    So Amapari, which is coming on line SOONER than announced is going to have an "anticipated reduction"? This is just plain wrong. Maybe within the realm of possibility is a reduction at Alumbrera if they think the gold or copper grades will decline (but that would still be wrong). Amapari is going to produce more and sooner than anticipated. I think they are wrong on Peak too but perhaps because of the prior credits for concentrate that gave a $460 average for gold in the 4th q. a very slim case could be made for possibly less revenue from Peak.

    On the whole, however, this report is amazing and unbelievable. Wheaton beats estimates by a wide margin, there is a delayed shippment coming from Alumbrera not mentioned (did the analysts from Cannacord even read the quarterly report?), there are credits coming from the amortization of the Silver Wheaton sale, Goldcorp produced more in January than every before, and there are several other good things coming, and they CUT their price target?? Amazing and really stupid imo.

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    • I am not a basher.
      There seems to be a major feud with a MAJORITY stockholder, former CEO or not.
      You brought it up, I did not.
      That you expect status/quo is reassuring.
      Who is they? Up until the show, I thought they were going to work together.

    • Johnny,

      "Be still my heart, lol ..."

      OK, on the count of three let's adopt the "surprised Look". 1-2-3- Whaaaat?

      No it's really GOOD to have the COB and CEO fighting!


    • As CEO, Telfer has great latitude.
      As non-executive Chair, McEwen has oversight responsibilities.

      I hope that both men can accept the limitations of their roles. If not, they will have to work it out.

      Too much at stake to f*** around. Both will realize that.

    • True. It is the talk of the show. Bad stuff coming. McE has too many shares to be trifled with, and he is pissed! Again, Telfer has outgrown his hat size, and has shown poor judgement. We do not need this.

    • I did speak just now with Steven Butler for a minute. Since I was a retail investor, he seemed did not seem to want to talk much. However, he was willing to explain that "commercial production" in the reduced rating was meant to imply production that ran through the income statement. So, for some reason not explained, he believes that even though the production at Amapari will be started earlier than previously announced, there will still be a reduction from his previous estimates in earnings that will show up on the GG income statement. As I said, we talked very briefly, as I did not want to argue and he didn't seem to want to talk. I mainly wanted to see if they had somehow listed "Amapari" by mistake -- thinking it perhaps should have been Alumbrera -- but there was no mistake from his point of view.
      Of course, I think his analysis is wrong from several points of view, but that has been covered in prior posts. Thankfully not many investors seem to be paying attention to Cannacord's views in this case -- and I probably shouldn't have even bothered to post them (but I do try to be fair and post whatever news I see if no one else has).

    • All part of the game.

      They lower earnings so their institutional clients can buy from other institutions that may lay off some shares in expectation of lower earnings. Then when earnings come out ahead of their own estimate -- that old magical phrase "beat the street" -- their clients look good for having bought and held ahead of estimates.

      Beating the street also brings the retail investors in, so the stock can rise even more with those "unexpectedly" higher earnings. Their institutional clients smile and wink to the brokers who make them look like geniuses, buy them a few rounds at the pub, and then continue doing business with their pals the following day.

      It's all part of the game of trying to move the stock so that their own clients can get in cheaper. Whenever an analyst with a house like Canaccord offers this sort of skewed opinion of a solid company like Goldcorp, and for no apparent reason, but going against the flow of general analyst opinion, they have their reasons, and always dominated by with their own bottom line. If the analyst opines negatively, then it's a buy signal. And vice versa... if their analyst opines positively, then they or their clients probably have shares they want to dump.

      So Canaccord probably wants Goldcorp for the house account, or to buy it for some clients. Their analyst opines negatively, hoping to move the price, and is thereby able to hit cheaper asks from other institutions. This sort of opinion has absolutely zero effect on retail investors... its purpose is to affect decisions of institutions outside Canaccord's circle of influence. The result of their analyst's mistaken opinion, however -- the result being that Goldcorp beats the street -- does affect institutions within Canaccord's circle of influence. It makes them look better in the eyes of their own investors.

    • Liar liar, pants on fire
      nose as long as a telephone wire!

    • What a bunch of bullsh#t! Yeah you know the relationship between these two men as a real insider. So what executive level position do you have at Goldcorp?

      These two men have a wonderful working relationship and everything is fine. Call the company and ask Rob himself if you don't believe me. Stop posting nonsense and lies and phony gossip on this board or you will be reported to the SEC

    • "Telfer has taken complete control of things, including limiting Rob to a spectator role."

      Be still my heart, lol ...


    • earl_the_channel_monitor earl_the_channel_monitor Mar 9, 2005 10:27 AM Flag

      Wasn't it the plan that McEwen was going to semi-retire anyway?

      As long as Telfer puts the cash to good use, gossip shouldn't matter much. Full steam ahead!

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