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Goldcorp Inc. Message Board

  • mac_happy_70 mac_happy_70 Aug 14, 2005 9:00 PM Flag

    the earnings estimates make no sense

    include, dont include, this is what telfer is trying to clear up regarding gg value. he said he was selling in next 2 wks after cc. this resulted in selling under 425. the current estimate isa lowballed .28 as dictated by fidelity and others who want a bullish report from which to trade to unsuspecting buyers in my opinion. watch the volumes and the block offerings after the report is out to get a clue what the big boys are doing.

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    • Yes, thanks.

      That is my feeling as well (that the earnings estimates don't make sense).

      And I agree that Telfer is trying to get things more predictable for investors in terms of comparing GG to other earnings reports.

      My thought is that the average of .25 includes some estimates INCLUDING the gold sale and some EXLCUDING the gold sale. The higher ones likely include it while the lower ones likely exclude it.

      In my view, if that is true, the "average" of those esimates is a meaningless number computed using apples and oranges, resulting in a number which seems low for sure if you going to include the gold sales.

      And yet, lots of investors and others take the projections quite seriously when valuing the stock and issuing upgrades or downgrades.

      As to whether the estimate is intentionally low, I'll leave that to others to speculate. I have no way of knowing who made the estimates and whether their motives were pure or not. I don't even know how they calculated the numbers in the first place as noted above.

      • 1 Reply to golddataseeker
      • Goldataseeker, I tend to agree.

        Usually, as you know, one-time events like the sale of the gold hoard are not included in basic results . . . just because they don't repeat!

        Hence, I tend to think earnings (after close, tomorrow, btw) in the .22 to .28 range, with the one-time in the .10 to .15 range. Mainly, on the lower end!

        .25 earnings for the quarter is really an accomplishment; with 388M shares, it needs both cylinders (GG and WHT assets) firing in harmony to make $97M after-tax profit...

        Assuming 250,000 oz. at even 0 cash cost, that would only be $100,000,000 or so BEFORE tax at $400 per oz.

        Hence, I tend to think your doubts are well placed, and JC's estimates are generous if not irresponsible.

        I'm hoping for .22 after tax earnings, and .13 one-time windfall with adjustments bringing it down a couple cents.

        We only count recurring earnings, and hope for .22.

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