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Goldcorp Inc. Message Board

  • golddataseeker golddataseeker May 2, 2006 9:37 PM Flag

    Despite a probable pullback. . .

    in GG that could be quite sharp and perhaps a little steep, we have decided we are going to hold all our core position going forward now.
    Our basis now is so low that it is really a pretty easy decision for us. I would hate to be buying in just now. That would be a lot tougher in terms of decision making, even though long term I still feel we have much more to go on the upside.

    We are in uncharted waters. TA is not going to be nearly as reliable as it has been previously imo. Of course, there will be pullbacks all along the way. However, the risk now has moved to MISSING OUT on an enormous and very sudden move up due to a trigger event.

    There are any number of events right now that could send gold and GG into an even higher acsent mode, as hard as that is to comprehend.
    We could have a gut wrenching correction first, but we might not. I truly believe the odds are about 50/50 at this point.

    We have been selling covered calls all through the flat to down years and have taken huge gains on 1/3 trading positions a few times along the way as well.

    I'm sure those opportunities will still be there for the quick and nimble traders, but we are just going to hold on to our core now until gold is into four digits. For sure this is going to be quite a roller coaster ride, but we think we still have a ways to go before we arrive at that top hill.

    Good luck to all, what an amazing year this has been in GG.

    BTW, just for fun I plugged in Jim Sinclairs long term gold price forecast of $1650 for gold. That comes out at over $5 per share earnings. For some reason, that no longer seems impossible now that everyone else is forecasting four digit gold prices.

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    • Golddataseeker,

      "in GG that could be quite sharp and perhaps a little steep, we have decided we are going to hold all our core position going forward now.
      Our basis now is so low that it is really a pretty easy decision for us. I would hate to be buying in just now. That would be a lot tougher in terms of decision making, even though long term I still feel we have much more to go on the upside.

      We are in uncharted waters. TA is not going to be nearly as reliable as it has been previously imo"

      Agree with 90% of what you posted. I have cost basis ranging from $2.50(presplit) to $20.

      IMO not quite yet in uncharted territory. We still have a heavy trading range in gold at $650-700 from 1979-1980. IF we break $700, I agree, it's a possible straight moonshot to $850 and beyond. After that, yes, I would say...uncharted territory. As for me, when, not if, we get there, I will reset my charts for inflation adjusted gold prices and reset support and resistance levels. I for one, do not like flying blind.

      Thank you so much for all you've contributed here. I have only one question, though. Who is "we."

      The best to you,

      rg

    • well said. Had this since '02 less than $1CAD in the old Wheaton River days. The fundamentals look to be aligning to be even more supportive. Can't believe we do not have a long way to go before the run is over. Look forward to your posts throughout then.

    • <<TA is not going to be nearly as reliable as it has been previously imo.>>

      TA is for measuring extremes during a time of relative stasis. When the times themselves are in disequilibrium the charts are prone to jump processes, or leaps on the charts. Think of the history/energy that is being unleashed, as civilizations clash, and old orders fall way. These are the times of the big quake, and this is what we should find on the charts.


      To eclipse the old 1980 high of $875 gold must reach $2,176 in today's dollars. This is what you get using the Fed's own conservative numbers. The problem is this is not 1980!

      Then, they had Paul Volker, who crushed inflation. Today, we've got Ben Bernanke, who embraces it. Then, they had a national debt of just $845 billion. Today, it's between $8.2 trillion and $53 trillion, depending on who you believe.

      Then, we had a hostage crisis in Iran. It ended. Today, we've got Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Nigeria, Afghanistan... and an unending "war on terror." Plus bin Laden still hiding in caves and Chavez mouthing off in oil-rich Venezuela, with Morales of Bolivia, and Humala. Then, you paid 78 cents for gas. Last summer, it hit as high as $3.20. Oil cost $38 per barrel. Today, it's closer to $70. Then, the oil shortage was political. Today, it's physical - supply just can't meet higher demand.

      Then, the weak dollar still bought more than the dollar today. And our only real economic competitor was Japan. Now you've got China, India, the euro... and a resurgence in Japan.

      Brace yourself. Because while this might spell doom for most Wall Street stocks, it virtually guarantees a global resurgence for resource investments, silver and especially gold.

 
GG
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