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Goldcorp Inc. Message Board

  • RLESLIE66 RLESLIE66 May 2, 2006 9:55 PM Flag



    Using Worden Bros. Telechart, I sorted the 58 gold miners, by descending P/E, the list is much shorter because most are not even profitable. Here is the stock followed by P/E:

    LIHRY 314
    GLG 196
    FNX 167
    AEM 88
    NEM 81
    IAG 64
    RGLD 61
    GG 42
    ABX 42
    GOLD 34
    NXG 25
    AAUK 18
    BVN 16
    RTP 15
    TGB 13

    My theory is that as a 1mil oz., unhedged producer, GG was probably undervalued. Oh, and no geopolitical risk.

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    • this is one of the few unhedged gold stocks!!!!

    • cashflow per share and assets value per share are typically before PE for miners, still especially on a cashflow basis, G is waaaaaayyyyyyy undervalued. You make a good point. GG could double and still be cheaper than many peers, particularly as its unhedged. The entire sector though is due to an upgrade as analysts factor in $575 or higher gold to re-value..then watch the fireworks for all miners that are unhedged.

    • <<I beg to differ as price to sales,I believe ,is the wrong yardstick for valuation in the gold sector.P/E is much better. GG's P/E is very attactive,1/2 that of a lot of the other majors.>>

      There are a constellation of factors to keep in mind when valuing a gold stock. GG is the brightest, and most majestic constellation in the sky.

      P/E ratio(low),
      Cost to get the gold out of the ground(low cost given copper credits, meaning more of future production can be discounted right to the bottom line),
      Production growth(anticipated to increase for the next six years),
      Scale(one of the leading gold miners; multi-million ounce producer)...

      GG is the lowest cost multi-million ounce gold producer with significant production growth anticipated for the next approximately 6 years. It is unhedged, and positioned to play the role of consolidator in politically stable areas(eg. Canada).

      The one problem Telfer has identified is the need for a project that will come on stream about 6-7 years out to prevent the currently anticipated fall-off in production. He must act quickly to solve this known problem he has frequently refers to, given the rising gold price, if he wishes it to be done most economically. Once this problem is solved through acquisition, and, perhaps, organic growth, the P/E should evidence a further expansion.

      GG also has a significant silver interest.

      This company is really a work of art, and beautiful in all it has become. It manifests the principals of the ideal.

    • I beg to differ as price to sales,I believe ,is the wrong yardstick for valuation in the gold sector.P/E is much better. GG's P/E is very attactive,1/2 that of a lot of the other majors.

      In that vain,GG could double and still be cheaper,especially when you consider their P/E may go down as they can get today's market price for their gold. They're able to do that as they're not hedged (obligated to sell on a futures contract basis at a much lower price per oz.).

      Make sense?

    • <<Agreed, all this free market capitalism did nothing for S. America; we came in stripped their resourses and paid them a pittance. They even privatized the water, I think in Peru, and it was a crime to collect rainwater.>>

      They remember that, and now with the tables turned, how could you blame them for ending the American empire, and building their own.

      "Just how badly is the U.S. borrowing money? According to the Treasury Department, America's first 42 Presidents (from George Washington to Bill Clinton) borrowed a combined total of $1.01 trillion from 1789 to 2000, Between 2000 and 2005, President George W. Bush has borrowed $1.05 trillion -- and he's got a few more years left to go."

      Add the social expectation concerning retirement, and retirement benefits. The projected deficit taking into account the aging babyboomers, and their benefits is $55 trillion by some estimates.

      What are all these Americans going to think when their savings are debased, and their are no old age benefits waiting for them after their life of work? We recently saw the rioting in France because the government tried to change the work rules for the young, away from the status quo, to help France compete in an ever more competitive world.

    • Wall Street firm analysts on commodities should've been the first jobs offshored to Asia....These same firms have been top calling oil and other commodities for the past 3 years. THEY JUST DON'T GET IT. Proof, they still price gold cos mostly at barely $500/oz. 95% haven't got it since it passsed $300, haven't got oil since it passed $30..Many are still calling for oil back to $40 or less. Neverneverland..Many probably still talk of Goldcorp with inventories.

    • buynokia2002phones_r_easy_to_use buynokia2002phones_r_easy_to_use May 2, 2006 11:09 PM Flag

      Merrill Lynch analyst Michael Jalonen noted the industry's increasingly burdensome cost structure in a recent report. He cited rising energy prices, higher taxes and royalties and increased depreciation as culprits of a 9 percent increase in overall costs industrywide.

    • All lefty means is standing up to U.S. multinationals, and the U.S. Government, and extracting the value of the resources for one's one nation.

      In the past the U.S. could pit resource dependent nation against resource dependent nation in trade agreements, and make them compete against eachother, driving the price of their labor, and resources, down to virtually nothing. If they didn't behave the U.S. would send in the CIA, and/or military to ensure compliance with American hegemony. Now that resources are scarce due to the rise of China, India, other developing nations, etc., and environmental limitations in an ever smaller world, strong men such as Chavez, and Morales, etc., can emerge, and thumb their nose at the U.S. for the history of abuse. Now they can make the U.S. compete, as like in a sweatshop, against the emerging nations of the world(China, India, etc.). U.S. power, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. social status is being severely undermined.

      The U.S. is loaded with debt, as the credit ratings of resource dependent nations climbs. Even with Iran it is prospering given the risk premium now in oil. Given the increasing social tension in the U.S., as Bush institutes the basics of a dictatorship(Patriot Act, warrantless spying on Americans, no-fly lists, manipulations of Congress, and the American people, for purposes of war), it doesn't take much to see where this all may be heading.

      Take away our Playstations, and we're just a Third World nation, under the thunb of some blue-blood royal son who stole the Oval office in that phony election.........

      These are historic times.... 9-1-1.......

    • cage goes in the water, you go in the cage, shark's in the di de, la di are proof as to why there's a market. So would those sales be before or after campbell lake?

    • buynokia2002phones_r_easy_to_use buynokia2002phones_r_easy_to_use May 2, 2006 10:55 PM Flag

      This stock is way overvalued on a price to sales ratio vs. other gold stocks... Double many others. So - there is a decent downside here...

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