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Goldcorp Inc. Message Board

  • golddataseeker golddataseeker May 9, 2006 6:32 PM Flag

    New numbers for GG

    It seems that I now have to run new prices into my spreadsheet for GG quite often to stay in touch with possible GG earnings at various price levels. Now that $700 has fallen, here is what the model spits out at 3 different price levels:

    Gold $650, Copper $3.00

    GG after tax EPS projects at: $1.50 per share on an one year forward basis once the 2 million ounces per year production kicks in.

    Gold $700, Copper $3.00

    GG after tax EPS projects at: $1.70 per share

    Gold $750, Copper $3.00

    GG after tax EPS projects at: $1.90 per share

    Other info:

    My model shows cash cost per ounce as follows at various copper prices:

    $2.75 lb = $60 per ounce

    $3.00 lb = $38 per ounce

    $3.50 lb = $0 per ounce (yes, ZERO)

    Those costs were calculated by taking the actual cash costs per ounce in Q4 2005 and BUMPING THEM UP ABOUT 30% to account for higher fuel costs and new higher cost mines at Amapari and from PDG.

    My earnings calculations also provided for about $70 million in interest expense on the loan to acquire the PDG mines. That may be lower because that loan may be paid off quicker than expected due to higher cash flows.

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    • golddataseeker:

      Did your share count take the conversion of warrants into account?

      Thanks in advance.

    • Listen up grasshoppers. When golddataseeker speaks, we listen. His spreadsheet model of GG earnings has been the best indication of what earnings will be bar none. The company would probably like to have him doing their guidance for them. Thanks again for sharing your work with us dataseeker. It's been invaluable.

      ...Bud

    • And also the debt problem, methinks...

      Another Telfer coup.

    • Numbers look good, real good.

      I was under the impression that $1 per share would be on the high side of expectation.

      Hope you�re right.

      Thanks for the info :-)

      • 1 Reply to erskineb
      • I put the detailed numbers on here for $650 gold and $3.00 copper so you can see for yourself and change anything you want to:

        All info is based on GG guidance and/or actual most recent available data.

        Revenue:

        Gold $650 x 2,050,000 = $1.3 Billion
        Silver $3.90 x 12,000,000 = $47 million
        Copper $3.00 x 160,000,000 = $480 million
        ------------------------------------------
        Total of all Revenues = $1.86 Billion

        Gold Operating Costs at $200/oz
        times 2.05 million ozs. = $410 million

        Copper Operating Costs at .93 per lb.
        = $148 million in copper costs

        Depletion & Deprciation at
        $120/oz times 2.05 million oz = $246 million

        General & Admin Expense including
        Interest expense on loan = $60/oz
        times 2.05 million oz = $123 million

        Gross profit before taxes = about $933 Million

        Taxes at 35% tax rate = $326 million

        Net Profit after taxes = $607 million

        Avg. shares out after warrant
        conversion & Virginia deal = about 400 million shares

        $607 million / 400 million shares = $1.52

        notes - actual gold operating costs per ounce in Q4 2005 were about $145/oz, actual copper costs per lb. were about .83 per lb.

        =========================================
        There you go.

 
GG
27.96-0.36(-1.27%)Jul 10 4:01 PMEDT

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