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Goldcorp Inc. Message Board

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  • reticiiz reticiiz Mar 6, 2007 12:21 PM Flag

    Vaysbg are you out there?

    Hard to say where the carry trade was invested but would surprise me if it was going into gold as most public isn't on the gold bandwagon yet, therefor most invest in other areas. Also borrowing cheap yen is nice but as long as yen is still cheap and not only Japanese interest rates which would also increase the Yen's rise. Gold is anti USD (to a degree) and anyone betting on the gold using borrowed yen is betting that yen would move higher in time and I don't know if that's the risk many would take.

    But the problem is that HUI hasn't been performing and also we're investing in paper assets not bullion here so if there is a market crash we;re be taken down with it and as HUI has been under performing for the last 3 months we got a beating last week. For this to be a real rally I would expect to see HUI take the lead otherwise it might be a short relief rally and GG might have a strong run up to the earnings maybe 27.70 before we move lower. This might have been the 62% Fib. retracement that we've witnessed and also the "3 arc Fan" pattern that Clive Mound talked about still is in place as gold did hold it's ground above the 3rd fan-line. In previous writing he did mention that many times there is a correction to the 3rd fan-line before moving higher - even though in his last writing he wasn't so optimistic. Anyhow IMO HUI is one to watch if it starts to outperform gold or will it be a lager that it was in the last 3 months.

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