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Goldcorp Inc. Message Board

  • melodias23 melodias23 Oct 11, 2013 1:15 PM Flag

    If gold can't rally now, when can it?

    Longs are TOAST

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • Gold is such a horrible metal. In fact, my wife wants here wedding ring to be stainless steel now!

      But if I was clever, I would be trashing gold (a la Goldman-Sachs) and talk about how terrible it is, poo-poo it and act as if it was the worst things in the world! Why? B/C you want to price it for the future! No inflation now! Super low interest rates now! But what about "in the future"?

      The real question is, "how long can interest rates stay this low? And how long can we not have inflation?

      How long can the Fed "inflate assets"? Yeah, "I know, I know, forever is the popular refrain". But nothing lest forever!

      The real task is to sit-back and wait! Yes, gold sucks, it's horrible, it's totally worthless...and everyday we inch closer and closer to that day where the Fed starts selling $3-trillion dollars worth of assets, historic low rates aren't "historic" anymore, and inflation moves on the scene. The only scenario where this doesn't play-out to gold's favor, is if we can achieve all this with "much moderation", where inflation comes-on so slowly (years), higher-interest-rates move-up ever so slowly (think 1-percentage-point each year but leveling-out so as not to be encumbering!), and the World keeps buying our Treasures as if they were "golden", the job-market come-back-on strong, but not strong-enough to spark inflation, the US Government reduces its structural deficit big-time, while interest rates are low, and people get-back-to-work in good measure, thus increasing our tax base, while run-away entitlement spending is held in check! Could well play-out that way! I'm not exactly hoping things get as crazy with as much leverage as we have built-up to make it that way, b/c it won't be pretty. But I do know, "business as usual will have to change in a big-big way for us to have such an orderly, smooth play-out".

      Otherwise, sit-back like a snake, and poo-poo gold all the way down to $900-1k, and then thank such selling like a gift-horse and BUY!

 
GG
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