OPTR shares rose last week after the FDA staff said the drug was effective. So, today's panel vote was essentially already baked into the stock price.
I expected approval and thought about shorting VPHM prior to the decision. Glad I didn't. Never considered going long OPTR, though, because the market potential for fida is modest.
Not every medical stock with an approved drug soars. So, be realistic and know when to sell.
not sure what i should be running scared from.... i've made two points about optimer; one, the market potential doesn't seem that large; and two, the deal with Cubist underscores this reality.
investors/speculators in biotechs tend to be overly optimistic, not pessimistic, and the stock dropped today. Given these realities, my decision not to take a position in OPTR was right on target. I expected approval, but thought the price already discounted this.
i thought a better play was to short VPHM or buy puts on the stock before the review. Ultimately never pulled the trigger there because of developments with their other drug.
So... definitely not a basher of OPTR. not running scared either. absolultely no need.
Just my opinion, I really doubt they're going to take any market share from flagyl at $5/pill, in cases where it's the first choice now, it will be the first choice later only because of the price. And I don't know where people have gotten estimates on this 'IV slurry', but it's use is definitely not as rampant as some people believe. Again, if it's being used for price now, it will later too. As you said, $1500 for the OPTR drug, that's a lot of money. I think it would have to go down some before you take out either of these options, they're used for price, not efficacy. Again, just my opinion.
You all are not factoring in the sales of generic flagyl alone and the generic flagyl - generic vanco IV slurry. FIDA will take some of this market share also, so you can't just use the #'s for brand name Vanco capsules.
Gnoh - Why can't you understand this? You are posting the same estimates over and over, which don't account for all patients currently treated.
For instance if there are 750,000 cases in the US and FIDA treats 30% at a cost of say $1500 you have 225,000 patients treated times $1500 = sales of $337.5 million in the US alone. This is just a very conservative estimate for assuming only 30% of the market and does not factor in EU sales.
vancocyn targets the same market and what were its peak sales!!!!
if fida has such good prospects, why was cubist the best marketing partner optimer could rope in. that's not all, why is it paying cubist to sell its product? in most cases, the marketing partner pays for the right to sell an innovator's product.