Taking a conservative approach of treating 100,000 patients @ $2800 comes out to $280 million.
At 50% profit margin, means $140 million
Divided by 45 million shares comes out to $3.11 per share!
VioPharma's valuation from oral Vancocin should give everyone an idea of valuation.
Remember, the DEA advises against using broad spectrum antibiotics because of the growing problem of resistance. Dificid, just what the FDA ordered.
it will be a long time before 100,000 cases have been treated. sales volume will depend on optr success in placing dif on the various formularies and negoitiating rebates and the success of field sales with their target markets. the headwind is the fact that the primary perscribers of dif are in a cost controlled environment.
I just returned by a Winn-Dixie pharmacy. As i have posted previously, every health care professional I mentioned dificid to becomes very excited. This particular pharmacist checked her computer and Dificid is already listed and ;priced for $4000 for a 10-day supply, ie, 20 tablets. I do realize that is a retail price and will vary from store to store and does not represent OPTR's revenue except in a general way. Just passing on some info.
Two major trends that are now a focus with dificille
* metronidazole's falloff in efficacy since the rise of community-acquired C. difficile-associated disease (CDAD)
* 20% of patients will relapse after a first episode
* Over 60% of patients who have a third relapse will subsequently have a fourth.
* emergence of vancomycin-resistant enterococci is a real concern (avoid vancomycin use in dificile)
The 2009 article reviews a problem that is (growing). And, it also points out:
"One promising investigational drug in the pipeline is OPT-80. It has minimal impact on normal gut flora and has shown good efficacy thus far in clinical trials."
Relapse occurs because Vancocin and metronidazole, due to their broad spectrum of anaerobic activity, hinder the re-establishment of the natural GI flora.
The trends are begging for a new option. I think your earnings calculations have a more than reasonable possibility.
I read earlier that there were 80,000 cases per year in Germany alone. I think your figures are very conservative. I think that it will take time for the Dificid word to get out and the earnings will ramp up slowly at first but as time goes on the sales will accelerate to the point that earnings will exceed your estimate. By the end of 2012 look for 200,000 cases treated and by the end of 2013 another 250,000 cases.