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Optimer Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • ucited ucited Nov 3, 2011 8:02 PM Flag

    revenue estimates

    Expected sales ramp of successful drug launch. 5%-15%-30%-50%. 5% of a successful new drug annual sales will occur in the 1st. quarter of launch. According to this formula, the current Quarter's sales estimate becomes $30MM (3 times the 1st. quarter). Therefore, the annual run rate becomes 20 X's $10MM, or $200MM annually, without adjusting for the fact that this first quarter's result were not a full quarter. It can be argued that it should be 20 X's $12MM, or an annual run rate of $240MM.

    The analysts will be increasing 2012 sales estimates significantly.

    We'll be heading for a double as soon as the moronic traders are done fleecing other traders.

    All of the above, just one man's opinion.

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    • I saw where next year's expected revenue, prior to this report knocking the ball out of the park, was for around $100MM. At the industry average of 9 X's sales it puts the market cap at just under $1B and therefore around $20 PPS. I rather like my estimate of $200MM in revenues next year......that should take the PPS north of $35.

      I can hold and wait for those kinds of returns.

      All of the above, just one man's opinion.