24% of the float is short = 18 days to cover!!! / Short squeeze . . .
According to Yahoo Finance, there are 13.88 million shares short as of 10/31/12. That is approx, 24% of the float. That would take 18 days to cover. That's right 18 days!!! IMAX 20 day moving average ($22.18) is still testing the 200 day moving average ($22.60) and the daily price is also testing the 200 day. With all the great movies in the pipeline recent deal news, expansion in China, and historically a strong winter film going season personally I would NOT want to be a short in this one. These shares will need to be covered sooner or later (these are all guaranteed buyers of the stock). Once IMAX breaks through these technical resistance points (ANY DAY NOW), new long technical traders will be jumping in and automated trading bot computer programs will be triggered and automatic buying will occur (IMHO). This buying could lead to a massive short squeeze as they attempt to cover. Remember, it will take them 18 FULL DAYS to cover all those shares. Even with a break above these points some shorts (who THINK they are smarter then others) may wait until a break above $24.00 to cover, I can appreciate that -- because $24.00 has been long standing resistance for some time, however, that would be a huge mistake (IMHO). At that point, the squeeze would already be on!!!! Once the bot buying kicks in, new tech traders rush in and the other shorts start to cover which will happen on a break as outlined above, $24.00 will come and go rather fast and before we know it IMAX will be testing the 52 week high. The final blow to the shorts will come once IMAX breaks it's 52 week high which could easily send it up in panic buying /covering to $32 -- $40. My time frame for all of this to unfold, is rather quick. No later then the end of the year. Baring any unforeseen market disaster. This is all my opinion of course, and I am just a guy who likes to trade stocks. My advice to the shorts is -- cover while you still have a chance. My advise to the longs is -- sit back and enjoy the ride UP. GLTA!!
I appreciate your enthusiasm and I hope you're right but a significant short squeeze just never seems to materialize in this name. Insiders sell constantly thus killing any upside momentum the stock generates.
The CEO filed to sell 450,000 shares recently. The average number of daily traded shares is 795,010 - 880,000. Even if he were to dump all his shares in one session, that would still leave more then 12.5 million shares that would need to be covered and approx 17.5 days to cover those shares!!! The main thing is, the TRIGGER -- as explained above -- once the 20 day moving average day breaks through the 200 day -- automatic computer buy programs will be triggered and tech traders will start aggressively buying , that in turn will start the short covering (IMHO). The intelligent shorts won't waste any time and will cover immediately when that happens causing an initial spike in price. . . once $24.00 is taken out on the daily chart, the squeeze will be in full effect causing massive panic buying by those shorts who waited to cover, will see a test of the 52 week high rather quickly when that happens. GLTA!!