I have been following this stock on an almost daily basis since 2002, when Apollo 13 was the first DMR picture in September of that year. This stock may go up quite a bit more. But do not put the money you need for a life saving operation in this stock. It can go down further and faster than seems possible.
I have been an IMAX investor as long as you, long enough to lose a big portion of my investment after their failed attempt to sell the company in 2006. The advent of HDTV and big screen flat panel TV's, along with the ever shrinking multiplex screen, convinced me that movies in their devolving form were dead and that only an evolution to somthing like IMAX would save Cinema as we know it. I got back in in 2008 at 6 after seeing the Digital solution and being blown away. Having been a long time fan of IMAX 15/70 my view was the Digital solution was the next best way to see a movie. Got stop lossed out at 16 during the first run up after that and then back in at 16 but did not get out at the peak of 38 during the Sony buyout rumor, the flash crash unfortunately discouraged me from putting in stop loss orders. Got out near the bottom with some profits and back in at 16-24 and plan on holding my position for the foreseeable future. Cinema evolution moves very slowly and involves large investments in Commercial Real Estate, as well as large investments in new Cinema technology. The reality is that the big exhibitor chains are still paying off their move to Digital and 3D and most carry large debt loads. There is not, as it was in HDTV, a format that is becoming the standard for the industry so the biggest, strongest and most advanced technology will most probably become the defacto standard.
That standard is not currently in place but my bet is IMAX is far enough ahead and will have the largest and most influential installed base to capture a large enough share of the Premium Cinema experience to stay on top of the Cinema food chain. Their "Apple" like ecosystem approach of capture through projection is also very powerful as long as top "Secret sauce" Directors keep choosing it as their paintbrush and canvas for their Art to assure their position at, or very near the top of widely available Cinema experiences. How fast, how high and the time frame of the stock price reflecting this reality I do not know but it's success, as of now, seems pretty much a foregone conclusion. My guess it that Management will take the expansion of the network as far as they can as an independent company until they cash in which was their original plan since acquiring the company. My expectation is that it will take place around the time of the Laser technology roll out. If the technology is a big enough leap to put allot of distance between IMAX and the rest of the pack it could be an astronomical buyout price. If it is just incremental then I expect it will be for the typical premium of maybe 20% of the stock price at the time of the buyout which could be anything from the current price to maybe 50 or more.
LOL! You are so right about that ritz, virtually ALL stocks can do the proverbial "swan dive" these days without so much as a moments notice. I don't think we're "special" here in that regard, but what I will say is that I've noticed that the CEO is no longer cashing out of massive equity stakes and that the stock may be less prone to such sudden movements, at least to the down side. I also have noticed that somewhere in mid to late July there seems to be a seasonal selloff, so you may want to think about putting on your positions then. Still, there's a lot going on with the current release schedule between now and then, so given the lack of insider selling, we could see a major move coming to this stock should we continue to witness exception box office numbers. Just my take, of course, I haven't been a student anywhere near as long as you, but for what it's worth, I am a "pair of fresh eyes"....