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Cytosorbents Corporation Message Board

  • mill.doug mill.doug Oct 28, 2009 11:03 AM Flag

    New PPS target ~$8.99 (World wide sep.~3.33Mil cases "plus")

    PR article:Research & Diagnostic Antibodies LLC,,link
    "" it is well accepted that better clinical outcomes are achieved when treatment is begun "immediately after diagnosis". The cost of treating septic patients in an ICU can add ""$10,000"" or more per day to a patient’s bill with treatments lasting at least two days and often more than 20 days. Since one in eight ICU patients are at risk for sepsis, the cost in the United States alone to treat sepsis exceeds $30 billion a year.""
    {my take on this article--msbt will sell,sell,sell filters}

    Now read this article, ""it will raise the hair on your back""--Link,

    {{{Now maybe you will understand the full potential of MSBT filters !!!$$$ & where the stock price could go to if they work}}}}
    New pps calculation still using just 1% of est. worldwide cases...just use 3.333 million incidents vs. 2.5 mil. per old calculation...
    given the ceo of medasorb stated that the incident (patients)rate is ~ 2.5 (i'm using 3.333 mil.incidents now per updated info. above) Million/yr with access to cytosorb treatment & assuming all incidents used cytosorb filters-sales would be ~
    $8,750,000,000 BILLION, yes billion (mature eu & us markets).
    OK,, great now let's get back to what we can really expect near term (1 yr). But 1st some facts, worldwide annual sepsis expense runs in excess of $18,000,000,000 yes billion (update it appears it is much more).(& that number does not include additional hospital expense for lawsuits,& extended incident stays-many of the eu nations actually reward hospitals for getting patients out faster "translated"-give us a product that can get the patient the hell out faster by one day & we make money)
    ceo stated cytosorb has a very,exceptionally high margin & will sell for about ~$500/per filter (one incident is 7 day avg @ 1 filter/day, so one incident cost $3500)

    Let's just use " 1% " to get our pps.
    3.333 mil x 1% = 33,333 incidents x $3500 = $116,667,000 x ~.40 margin = $46,667,000 profit
    (i believe the margin rate would be higher actually), $46.667 Mil / 41.52 mil o/s = $1.12 eps
    $1.12 eps x 16 pe (growth stks pe usually 20) = $17.98 PPS
    But now they claim partnering is 100% needed, so assuming we split the margin (it get's much more complicated than that with these deals), we arrive at a pps of (17.98 / 2 = $8.99) PPS $8.99
    (10% of forecast = $89.90 pps)

    after 4 hrs dd yesterday i bought in this am, i am about excited about the opportunity here as i am biel (& yes i am still holding strong to my biel pps of $.96)
    ((Looks like msbt trial data may not be out to after November, Dec-Jan ???, hold onto your shoes if it is positive ?))

    (biel,msbt,imgg,neph, and now bgt 1.8 mil shares this am 10-27-09,,of LLBO-for next yr's return, all stocks on friends/family recom list)


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