I think a big chunk of last week's activity must have been professional traders with real time access to DARPA's award decision. They bet on a small run, and will make 20-30% on their money. Not bad for a week's risk. Over the next 3-4 days, those shares will trade to real investors who are doing their DD right now, and we should see a moderate climb heading into the 10Q. Sales info in the 10Q, plus details on the terms of the DARPA award with guidance on how the first $1.5M will be spent, will decide whether the PPS drifts back down or finds new support.
I believe $.20-.30 ($40-60M cap) by the end of the month is realistic. Of course, another 10Q featuring "the interest among thought leaders is real" and "we're ramping up which is why we aren't selling anything" will stunt this for another 3-6 months. Even if they don't have 6-digit sales revenues, at least show us how many cartridges are shipping out and being booked under R&D expense. Anything is better than imagining cartridges in a closet gathering dust while the "sales team" waits for some reliable, published data on efficacy to support their pitch.
I think sales in the next report will still be tiny and this is not the parameter by which CTSO should be judged and evaluated at this juncture. CTSO must be evaluated by future potential which is what a decent research analyst does. If the PPS backs off due to low sales it would represent a buying opportunity. I believe the greatest potential for CTSO would be to be acquired by a deep pockets entity.
I don't disagree in general, but its not enough to have a good product with potential. There must be either amazing scientific validation (which CTSO does not have that we know of) or some market penetration. Otherwise, big pharma waits to see if they can get around the patents or buy them at firesale prices. By the 10Q in Nov., if they announce a meeting with the FDA to modify the IDE in prep for a US study, combined with either steady sales or at least increasing giveaways for R&D, plus maybe a PhII SBIR award, the chances of buyout on favorable terms become awesome. Without those near term milestones, maybe the buyout or partnership terms won't be what we want.