The revenues for 1Q13 look small for a device with such potential. But I have learned to be more patient after being forced to wait this long. If we can grow at the same rate each quarter going forward, which is quite conservative assuming good results from the dosing study, we can expect $1.4M this year and $7M next year.
The company likes to throw around the number of potential German patients annually at approximately 150,000 - Only takes 400 to reach the $1.4mil figure- My hope is that we see firm & reliable study data before the entire country breaks for holiday in August-
My model has sales revenues for 2013 of $2.4M and sales revenues for 2014 of $10.6 M. If Hemodefend takes off and they file for FDA approval in 2014, the numbers could go even higher. Won't be too many years out before we have revenues of over $100 M. JMHO.
I expect far more than $7M in 2014 if all is going well with the KOL's as we are being lead to believe it is. By the end of 14 there should be enough results and dosing studies to make it or break it. IMO
Honestly, I was originally expecting $7M this year and $20M next year back in Jan 2012. But we are about a year behind schedule as I obviously overestimated the rate of adoption. If we have out-of-this-world results from the dosing study and from real world use, we could still reach my original targets. I am just numbed by the 2 year wait and so have set lower internal expectations so that I can hold this till I eventually reach that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, which it should. The question really is whether that is 3 years or 5 years down the road.