I know the prediction game is a crapshoot, especially with early stage development companies. Nevertheless wanted to open a discussion regarding Zack's & posters thoughts on where we might be at end of 2014. In their spread sheet they estimate total gross revenue at $6,553,000. Of this, $5,340,000 is generated through sales, and the remaining $1,213,000 by way of grants/royalties.
Cost of goods sold is $2,521,000, so appear to be working on a 52/48% gross margin. They really kick up the general & administrative - and R&D costs to $6,062,000 & $5,650,000 respectively. And toss in $1,500,000 in preferred dividend payments. Have a big negative net of $9,000,000 - They also portend a huge leap in diluted shares from 238,000,000 to 355,000,000 - Perhaps this 170,000,000 at .60cts helps pay the freight on the net negative-
Be that as it may, one scenario I envision is the slow & steady progress we've seen continue in all facets of company growth. Given the early leak regarding a distributor in the UK, I would expect sales to be rolling in that country as well as Germany, Austria & Switzerland. This represents 160 million in population and approximately 400,000 potential patient applications. The Zacks sales numbers for 2014 represent only 1,500 patient applications. Also given device usage seems to now be peeking its head into post-op cardiac surgery patients it wouldn't suprise to see that figure trend higher.
However, as we've seen, early stage development companies are bought/valued on "potential" sales/earnings- If the ongoing and subsequent dosing study data bring solid results, possibly a buy-out at $2.50-$3.00 by end of '014 -
Share a vision, and try to keep it civil - GLTA
All of the predictions change with Distributers in Canada, Asia, India & EU etc.
Who would'nt want a peice of this action if a distributer after Q2 and 350K + Sales and Dosing Study
Minimum of $0.50 in July 03 Then it will draw some attention and start bidding up with buyers
Could also get $1.50 to $2.00 buyout this year after PPS $0.50 +
Please show me a stock with better upside, anyone?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think that the game changer is what the results of the dosing study will show. If mortality is dramatically reduced the pps will be impossible to predict, because then the street will really be looking at forward revenue potential. Just goggle sepsis drug failures and there are numerous failures throughout the years in this very large unmet need. Also, this is just for sepsis, think about all the other indications and revenue potential.
At $2.50, the company will be valued at $0.9 Billion if they dilute to 355M shares. For that to happen, they need at least $90M in revenues or about 20,000 treatments which is 5% market share. Zacks is assuming 1% market share for a 50 cent target. Right now, I will be happy with 50 cents after dwelling in the cellar for 2 years. That will give me the conviction to hold for a 100 bagger by 2020, if this becomes the standard form of therapy for sepsis and a host of other ICU applications worldwide.
Thanks for the contribution, and your prolific postings. I've only been involved in one other small cap buy-out so don't have much experience in that regard. If memory serves, the recent 10-K stated that fully diluted we're at nearly 500 million shares. Jim Gunton/NJTC V. Cap and Robert Shipley together own nearly 50% of shares, mostly preferred B- ( again a bit fuzzy on the preferred share shake out) - Be interesting to see what voice they may have in partnership or buy-out-
Who knows, maybe big Pharma pays a premium once more conclusive data is published & accepted. And the other product lines also show promise-
I think we see $1.50 to $2 per share by end of 2014 and close to $4.50 per share by end of 2015, assuming no reverse splits. This stock has a VERY LONG way to GROW and in 5 years could be a $10 stock. And it will STILL be in it's infancy. Foolish to take ANY serious profits on this stock except for a little "play" money. Best to sit and let it grow for 10 years and retire in luxury!!! jmho.