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Cypress Semiconductor Corporation Message Board

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  • floppy_6 floppy_6 Feb 19, 2006 4:51 AM Flag

    5-7% increase Solar module ASP

    Cyboardlurker,

    One thing we might agree with each other is either SPWR fair value at $25 or $45, CY deserves to go up. CY current valuation reflects very little SPWR valuation at all.

    You can check into Q-cell site http://www.q-cells.com/2_eng.php

    Without double-check again, I recall their gross margin is around 30%, operating margin is around 15% and is producing nice profit now. So what I am buying is not only cheaper Ev/S stock, I am also buying a solar maker really making profit. How they make that kind of profit? In 2005, they already have 270 MW capacity fully on production line, SPWR has 25 MW with the new 25 MW just ramped. VOLUME make a big difference in manufacturing efficiency. Q-cell's technolgy is nothing enviable - just 15% efficiency coversion. Their growth is not much - only to increase to 350 MW level. Expanded capacity fully rely on the JV with ESLR. They take two firms' technology together not even able to match up SPWR. But I am a number person, I rather buy cheap and profitable company than a technology leader not making money. Yes SPWR has an ambitious expansion plan to reach 300 MW level. But that is sometimes around 2008 to be really fully ramped. Only at that time, SPWR can expect the same VOLUME manufacturing efficiency like Q-Cell achieved. (p.s. 300 MW expansion plan will cost $250 millions)

    Well not so many geniuses in this world can correctly predict oil price in 2008. So for every pragmatic reason, I stay with Q-cell. P. S. Q-Cell is $90 now, I start to buy Q-cell a month ago at $60 with 4.2 EV/S. How dull was German investors lack of imaginery ability for vision, how brave American investors is to vision the full future potential?

    I don't want to talk about STP, their ER CC is totally a mess. I am not even sure of the numbers of shares their EPS is based on. But STP I believe is at the same manufacturing efficiency like Q-Cell, they just ramped up their latest line to reach 150 MW.

 
CY
11.05+0.18(+1.66%)Aug 29 4:00 PMEDT

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