At 20K a year per patient it is $1 billion. Then you have the EU and Asian populations. Then if they give an indication just for tophi you can break into the general gout poopulation beyond the orphan population. That would probably be out of a 500K patient pool. Someone who went to the conference posted earlier that $20K/year/patient is what they were thinking on price.
The population has been pegged at 50k since the onset. If you didnt like the population then, it shouldnt change your opinion now.
What has changed with this drug? The only thing I see is three additional people with preexisting heart disease - had heart attacks. This is reason for pause - but not reason to throw the drug out. The placebo group had an even greater heart attack experience.
I change my opinion when either FDA approval looks in doubt - seems unlikely since they are pushing the drug for other apps. Or if the efficacy of the drug begins to change - but the contrary seems to be occurring.