If we just estimate 20k patients...WORLDWIDE...at only $25k/yr/pp,that would result in approx $500M in peak revs. At approx 3x peak rev estimates of $500M you get $1.5B divided by 61.62M shares gets you to around 24-25/sh. Dooby, you sound like you have sellers remorse and are concocting stories to turn away from the mirror. I've never been a short nor Clement. Double-down ASAP or else you will regret it. Stop waiting and start playing with the #s as a buyer would and again reread the excellent data we have. The coast is clear to be long in size.
Pegdr: I just read the results of the 91k patient study completed by Dr Wen-Harn Pan of the National Taiwan Univ,Taipei that examined the relationship between high uric acid levels and CVD. They studied 42k men and 49k women whose aver age was 51. 1,151 of the 5,427 study deaths were attributed to CVD. Their results were: "In middle-aged Chinese adults high blood levels of uric acid are a strong predictor of death from CVD & stroke." Dr Wen-Harn Pan also said: "Our data showed that people with high uric acid levels had poorer survival than those w/lower levels. However, whether lowering it would translate into improved survival awaits further clinical trials." A co like PFE that is losing Lipitor might be very interested in this area. Also,there are several other studies (one by Dr Phillip B. Mellen)that strongly suggest high uric acid levels signal hypertension in African Americans.
One point McJ got right is that there are an estimated 500,000 people with tophi in the U.S.; however, most of them have not been shown to have TFG. "How can that be?" you ask ...
TFG is defined by failure to normalize uric acid levels after three or more months on a clinically appropriate dose regimen of allopurinol (or having an adverse reaction that prevents completion of the three month treatment period). So, if a patient stops taking allopurinol because of mild GI upset or painful gout flares, etc., they can't be classified as TFG. If the patient doesn't get the allopurinol prescription filled, they aren't included in TFG, either, etc., etc. The result is that there are a lot of tophi in non-TFG patients.
Since allopurinol (or Uloric) effectively treats at most about 60% of gout patients, there could eventually be nearly two million TFG patients in the U.S. (40% of 5 million), but those patients would need to give allopurinol (or Uloric) a fair trial in order to demonstrate their TFG status -- and that will require re-education, which only big pharma (or the government?) can afford to do. That is why the TFG poulation is estimated to be up to 100,000 -- but it could be a moving target!
I think you know what I mean .....
Quite frankly I rather detest someone who has a this drug "can't miss", "slam dunk" attitude re: K -- disappear totally from a board when the stock tanks. And then comes back 10 months later spewing the same old stuff.
I see he's now trying to rip BEAT (something Ride is in and something I traded) with negative earnings and such. Well, I think if one looks at SVNT earnings the next few years they're also negative. Oh wait, that's a different story (in his eyes).
But in the end it doesn't matter. You, like I, see BOTH sides of the risk-reward.
My point was the over exuberance of mcj. And yes I made my point.
My secondary point is his somewhat aggressive and vengeful attacks. He states I have an "agenda" and that I "arrogantly" posted about his 1 million patient target.
For the record I merely stated that such thinking today was "sheer fantasy". Unlike mcj, I deal with FACTS and reality. SVNT will NOT, under any circumstances, have the necessary financial resources to undertake additional studies. I don't believe he has any idea as to how much studies cost. And SVNT will be bleeding for the next 2 years at a minimum. And depending on the length of delay in approval they may have to raise even more cash. And I'd bet my last dollar that Joseph Schwartz at Leerink Swann and all the other analysts would be suggesting higher patient population targets than what they're stating if they saw things as mcj does. But they're not. So I ask myself? Who do I believe? The bullish analysts or a school teacher? I'll go with my gut feel, which is more in line with analysts.
You have obviously made your point. However, I would not be so quick to dismiss the science obtained in K to being effective, down the road, in providing preventative treatment to cardiac patients. As noted by the FDA in its Briefing Book to the panel, "Hyperuricemia and gout are often accompanied by signficant co-morbidities including cardiovascular disease, hypertension, .." THere have been other articles that have inquired as to the chicken or egg issue that is readily apparent. That is, whether the hyperurecemia is a result of the cardiac problems, hypentension, diabetes etc, or is it a cause? There is no doubt that hyperurecemia is a risk factor for these other conditions. If in fact it is ever determined that the causal relationship[ is one where the uric acid levels are the true culprit there may be many other applications. The problem is we don't have the cash to sponsor these trials. That is one of the main reasons that a buyout makes tremendous sense for all parties. Like so many things, however, the sticking point is price.
Re: Major Downgrade! 30-Jun-08 01:12 pm
Cash-flow is a very good financial metric to look at. One analyst already has SVNT earning $5.79/sh in 2012. This analyst- like Palo Alto and myself-is already factoring in tophi revs into his forward estimates. The other analysts will soon follow. 20-25 times $5-6/sh equals a price target of between 100-150/sh in approx 4 years. Our stock price is 25/sh. 50-55/sh now is a bargain.
$50 to $55 a year plus ago was a BARGAIN!!
Heck, I may wait the 3 additional years to get the $150/share!!
And perhaps the BEST yet:
PFE is my bet for the acquirer 10-Jul-08 10:10 am
IMO Pegloticase's potential use in the huge cardiovascular mkt is what will eventually make PFE pull the trigger on SVNT. PFE already knows Pegloticase will get approved for the orphan indication based on robust P3 & OLE results and should also eventually be able to expand the label into the tophi, flare, tender & swollen joint and Elitek's mkt, based on the robust data we have thus far. Together, these indications could potentially give PFE 2-3B in peak worldwide revs. The heart attack mkt could be the first cardio mkt PFE could attempt to leverage Pegloticase in because recent large studies showed that gout (and not high cholesterol levels) was the 3rd biggest risk factor to heart attack patients after family history and smoking. More than 900k Americans have heart attacks each year and approx 150k die from them. The heart attack mkt is a multi-million patient mkt at 15-20/yr. With PFE's marketing muscle and large army of salespersons,PFE could very quickly make Pegloticase a multi-billion dollar drug. 60/sh is my new buyout price prediction. This is small change for PFE.
$60/share -- AND entry into the "heart attack" market!! You heard it here first!!
SLOW day trading today since I'm holding a number of short positions and waiting to either cash out of them or add to them if we can get some more downward pressure.
And then there's this:
Just bought another 5k @ 25.50/sh 30-Jul-08 01:25 pm
You knew the price movement going into the CC wasn't going to be a straight line up. The very low volume tells me that aggressive price manipulation is going on.