JJ said that if there was one thing they have heard from physicians it is
"Wow, this product really works, and it works fast."
I believe that. In the long run, isn't this what will take SVNT stock much higher. Sales will build because Krystexxa is a fantastic product!
What is really important is a glaring omission in the CC, like "our break even point is at $----- sales level and we expect it reach it around 201-". Other than that K is a very effective niche drug, a drug that was funded with shareholder philanthropic contributions over half a decade.
True, they have not supplied break-even data. However, it WAS mentioned that CGS should trend toward 20% and it is probably virtually all variable, so you can work up something of your own.
Shareholder philantrphy is pretty much what biotech in general is based on. Vertex just showed their first profit after, I think, 22 years. So you needn't be singling out SVNT.
As far as being a niche drug, well they never claimed otherwise. It IS an orphan drug after all. That does make start up a heavy lift, but once it is going it is nice to have a niche. It is also nice to have 7 years of FDA exclusivity and patent protection until 2016. For those who respond well (a very high percentage cpmpared to many other drugs) it works. It obviously, measurably, visibly works, it is not an exercise in statistical magic. They WILL find the correct way of communicating a very compelling risk/benefit profile to physicians, I am confident.
Dane we do know we have a great drug, but so far they have not shown the patients.
They were keep telling us 20% patients see RHU, and today they changed the story to 10%, to justidy the 120k potential numbers.
if 10% is correct, and 4-5k rhu, then we end up about 2 patients per RHU, which is what shorts were saying for months, but JJ stated before it could be as high as 10 patients per RHU.
90% see primary care docs. There are over 150k PC docs vs 4k RHU, and it will be very expensive to sell 150k docs.
Starting jan 1st, our cost will probably go up to reach 150k docs. 60 sales is not much for that many docs.
then the question is, why isn't sales growing exponentially? If the product works, people will find a way to buy it.
Sure the J code has reduced the population size until 2012, but revenue should be doubling.
Perhaps usage doubled quarter over quarter but the "get it free" thing obsfucates that. Very hard to ascertain. Will be nice to see 4Q progress in small steps, then 2nd half 2012 progress in very big steps.
Well, sales are coming close to doubling, right?
Accounts went from 36, to 140, now to 329.
Sales went from $0.3M, to $1.1M, to $1.9M.
So, we're tracking at close to 100% growth per quarter. Not quite. But, the fact that we can grow that fast without a J-Code and in an orphan/new market is good enough for me. I would hope to see an acceleration of the growth next year, and if we keep up this growth for 3-4 more quarters, we're in business. Not even considering Europe...
My kind of bet. :)