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  • joedavidson92 joedavidson92 Mar 21, 2013 10:55 AM Flag

    Where hope may lie?

    So, I've been "trapped" in SVNT for several years - averaging down and getting more frustrated along the way. I should have listened to my gut and sold at least some shares after the Tang court case was dismissed last year.

    I read the results, listened to the call and unsure about what lies ahead. There are 3 things that have kept me hopeful: 1. partnerships (or better yet buyout); 2. expanded label usage and 3. improved board of directors team.

    1. Dan has clearly layed out the poor execution on point one and I'm not sure that NICE will approve the drug (though I would assume thier findings should be similar to CHIMP and US regulators.) Lou mentioned interest beyond Europe with Asia, ( read Takeda?? .. who knows) but I find in increasingly diffcult to believe him.

    2. I put alot of credence in what Ken Bahrt says and on the last call he seemed a bit aloof (though he is always careful what he says). To me, if the testing on expanded usage is done, why can't they expedite the results tabulation etc. - Clearly this is a critical opportunity for them UNLESS, they have insight to the preliminay results and they are not as good as hoped. Ken even answered a question on the CC about whether the biology (theory) of what they were testing could lend itself to expanded usage and while he confirmed it could, he very clearly stated there is often a delta between biology and actual results. Question to experts - do you believe they have insights OR, does it really take a long time to actually discern findings?

    3. The board is continual improved BUT, they now need to act! Hopefully they will show more initiative and see the problem with a less-than-charismatic-leader like Lou representing the company.

    I could bail now, but I'd be leaving a huge hole in my portfolio (my own fault) - I appreciate any views you may have. And don't worry - if there not thought through that's ok - I'm a big boy and know how to ignore idiots statements.


    Sentiment: Hold

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    • Trapped here since Fall 2010, original purchase in the 10s. Average cost basis is now $2.25.....75k shares. I will average down again if we stay around here long. Agree that this is disappointing, but all we can do is wait. I am in the same camp as others -- I'd rather lose it all than sell here. I've been a part of a successful shareholder class action in the past (Enron). Checks still come in to this day. I've recouped 90% of my investment there.

    • I think there's still time for a turnaround in the next few months, but I could be wrong. Not having much luck lately.

    • Hi Joe
      I too have let myself become trapped in SVNT---I bought way too much when it fell from 20 to ten two years ago, and then compounded my initial error by averaging down all the way through two dollars to the present.
      We were so misled ! But, of course, let the buyer beware and it's my own fault for going all in on an IRA.
      I simply can't sell at these prices. It sounds stupid, but at this point I'd rather lose it all than eek out a few thousand dollars out of what was a sizeable investment for me. I agree with your take on Ken Bahrt's demeanor--but it is so hard to discern anything from tone of voice--he did clearly emphasize the gulf between treatment and biology--I agree.
      This is so sad.
      My only condolence is that I have never actually had to use any of this money--yet. I would love to help my daughter with a big dentist bill--I am in till they are BK or something changes

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 3 Replies to lelajosh
      • josh, Thanks for coming out of hibernation. Any friend that bought around 10 is a friend of mine indeed. What my ask is your current avg cost basis? Mine is now $4.64 but it was $16.25. You're like me, already down $78K, I'd rather risk losing it all for the greater long term potential, or maybe just BE. That's a hard one for most traders you'll find on this msg bd to agree with because they're haven't been captive for as long was we have been. I would beg to differ on one of your statements, "let the buyer beware and it's my own fault for going all in". You discount your rights by believing that horses-it! These new Savient execs have been misleading us with false hopes and quite possibly can be proven to be outright lies. That goes way beyond the investors buyer beware creed, etc. Stay tuned my friend. This may turn into a Shareholder Class Action and if it does, you, like me, will be members because by that time there'll be nothing more for us to lose. Good luck to you friend! kg

      • the member directors in the other biotech company i use to say DOTCOM=BIOTECH (2000 crash)

      • Never Never do averaging down with biotech company.for example you got Gangrene start at your finger you to cut before it's got all over your body .Ken Bahrt & Dan care more his pocket but the are like all the memeber

    • Good post JD, I concur with your assessment but Lou's credibility has taken a big hit and rightfully so.
      The drug works but SVNT does not, partnerships is not the answer for this co., they simply are in way over their heads from a marketing standpoint. The co. needs to be sold, and Dan hit it right on the head the sooner the better. They're burning thru cash and there's little or no traction on sales, I don't like it but when everyone else is so negative (longs and shorts alike) on the stock, I'm tempted to increase my lot at these prices but.............fool me once shame on "you"..........fool me twice shame on "me", I'm going to just sit back and observe for a bit before making any big moves one way or the other. However, I'm through relying on the verbiage the mgmt spew, just simply SHOW ME THE MONEY!


      • 2 Replies to thinkk_logicalllly
      • George.varas,

        Thanks for coming out of hibernation! What my ask is your current avg cost basis? Mine is now $4.64 but it was $16.25.

        Please see the rest of my same msg to you that I wrote to lelajosh (above).


      • Well, we are not alone.
        I bought at $12 after they dropped from $24 and averaged all the way down to $0.67
        (with a total cost basis of $2.5 more or less)
        Looking back, I agree it was a disaster (ever since FDA approval) and all I can do is to keep learning
        But today at $0.76 I have no options (yes I'm trapped)
        Looking forward to a big "world" partner (SNY, MRK, TKD), should take us back to $1.5
        Finally, this drug belongs to a large co with a strong sales force, $3 - $3.5 final share price

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