To quote mc, "Most importantly, ANY...... dialysis benefit IMO will help change the EU's mind on K's "cost-effectiveness". Helping cure 2 diseases IS......worth the cost. Hello EU mkt , partnership deal or buyout."
I agree with mc. This is a very important milestone with critical timing for us. By my recollection of conf call statements, Savient is now a month n a half tardy in releasing news/status/results on the dialysis study. They said by end of May or mid June. It is now July 1st. We've rec'd nothing to date.
kg2931 ( Long n Strong 20K Shrs SVNT(BTGC) @ $4.64 Shr Avg CB ($92,800) held 16 years since 2/11/1997)
The following evidencing Savient did say mid 2013 on the dialysis study is right out of the "BRIDGEWATER, N.J., Nov. 8, 2012 /PRNewswire": "Savient Pharmaceuticals Reports Third Quarter 2012 Financial Result"
"• Executing clinical development strategy: Began actively recruiting for the study of KRYSTEXXA in dialysis patients, which is expected to be completed by mid-2013. "
Ferrari is the one that verbally said the "by end of May or mid June" in the Conf Call.
Realizing of course that recruiting pts for the study is far from completing anything. I still have to review the complete conf call transcript to find where end of May/mid June came from... Stay tuned - when I get time... kg
I think if dialysis study is successful, it would be followed by another price rise. This time to around 10,000 USD. But delays in the studies tend to raise eyebrows regarding efficacy. If you remember STIMUVAX from ONTY. This cancer cure was delayed and the shareprices dropped 70 %. Delay can be bad news sometimes.
However, the SVNT BOD have on numerous times been confident of the dialysis study. Atleast that was the case in the last cc. It was one of the only confident things that LF & co SPOKE about.
However, dialysis wont result in EU Partnership because of miniscule patient popluation. As per BOA analysts, the EU Patient popln is 80% of US MARKET. Therefore, with this pricing there would not be any profits. The partner has to divert his resources for marketing and that expenses alone would be 5 mil. The market for K is less 20 mil per quarter. For a partnership THE partner has to pay 25-30 million dollar payment upfront or a profit sharing. Unless the EU partner could have somewhere of 20 million dollar profit minimum it would nt take K for distribution. Right now, there is nothing to suggest that K would bring that much revenue.
You need Phase 4 INDUCTION studies to get a solid partner and therefore that is atleast A YEAR AND HALF AWAY. Unless SVNT gets funds from somewhere or gets buyout these studies are impossible to begin with.. Also, there is no guarantee that the studies would be successful either. BOD is presiding over 5 months of remaining cash burn. After that, they would have no hesitation for auctions
As far as buyout is concerned, SVNT would have difficulty getting buyout more than 3. Even at 3 USD, it would be a struggle. For example, why any biotech would invest 400 million to get SVNT when that much money can buy a cancer cure. Also, if SVNT gets bankrupt then K would be out for auctioning for anywhere between 50-70 million. Any biotech firm therefore can get K for cheap because rest of SVNT are toxic assets.Q2 is going to be very interestin
- I think at this point we're all just hoping Savient follows through soon on giving us news/status/results on the dialysis study. And lets hope its good and then go from there.
- I respectfully disagree. On your, "dialysis wont result in EU Partnership because of miniscule patient popluation" and your, "The market for K is less 20 mil per quarter", please state which pt population you are referring to; RFG Pts, Dialysis Pts or all combinged?
- Savient will not go "bankrupt".
- K will never be "auctioning for anywhere between 50-70 million".
- No "biotech firm therefore can get K for cheap ". EVER!