Fri, Oct 31, 2014, 5:49 AM EDT - U.S. Markets open in 3 hrs 41 mins

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • thinkk_logicalllly thinkk_logicalllly Aug 28, 2013 6:03 PM Flag

    Enough with the idle chatter, let's put SVNT(K) into proper perspective

    First of all, sooo many of you are missing a very important clue regarding the q2 numbers, not just the comparison with q2 2012, but with q1 2013! I won't go into it because it's there for all to see, do your own dd but be smart about it. Secondly, many of you have written off the EU, I haven't. The only reason a partnership re: EU hasn't happened is because in LF's own words: "The deal has to be right for SVNT and be right for the would-be partner", it doesn't mean a deal is off the table. To sit there and thinkk there's no interest in marketing K in the EU is absolutely foolish, imo. Wake up folks, the gout epidemic is real and growing, especially with the aging baby boomer population, regardless the current size of this market, it's going to be HUGE! K is an extremely valuable asset in this market and this fact is not lost on big pharma, believe me. Yes, I know the back and forth chatter about Meeker, but he's here for a reason.

    I will sum up my views with these last few comments and then let the true "thinkkers" respond. I firmly believe that everyone connected with K (shorts, longs, tutes, big pharma, small pharma, Meeker, JJ, LF, the 3 presidents, and anyone else you care to throw into the mix) ALL of them know that K is worth a LOT more than 65 cents. What everyone is missing is not "if" but "when" the right offer is accepted, don't kid yourselves, there are offers on the table imo. My last point, don't overlook Takeda, K fits with Alipurinol like a hand in a glove. What's your take? But please spare us with the nonsense, I thinkk we all had just about enough of that, don't you thinkk?

    thinkk (more) not

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • I think Q3 revenue is going to be much greater than expected.

    • Thinkk-Logically this is an excellent comment ", I haven't. The only reason a partnership re: EU hasn't happened is because in LF's own words: "The deal has to be right for SVNT and be right for the would-be partner", it doesn't mean a deal is off the table. To sit there and thinkk there's no interest in marketing K in the EU is absolutely foolish,"

    • It is an excellent comment, Thanks.... "it's going to be HUGE! K is an extremely valuable asset in this market and this fact is not lost on big pharma,"

    • thinkk_logicalllly, it is great.... Thanks.

    • Great post logic! Refreshing to hear from another Long that's been around a while.

      Ditto everything of course. Only thing I'll add/complement with is:

      1) The EU (British) NICE commission (socialized medicine commission) lack of recommendation/blessing, is not a show stopper for SVNT and K throughout EU. NICE is not a Govt regulating body that K has to go throught to get approval to market and sell. We just haven't rec'd NICE's blessing (YET).

      2) Said this before, will do it again. Takeda is receiving about a 1.5 billion this year with the rest next year from a lawsuit settlement. This was in a recent Wall Street Journal article for anyone wanting to Google it.

      Cheers to all Long n Strong SVNT Longs!

      kg

    • Takeda owns Febuxostat, not Allopurinol........There are over 100,000+ tophi pts who could benefit from induction therapy........K, followed by *Febuxostat(*Takeda's general oral gout therapy)....Takeda and AZN are two likely buyers, along with other rev deficient big pharma cos worldwide.......Once K is priced closer to Acthar , a deal should emerge........There is no way SVNT will go it alone next yr.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • thinkk_logicalllly thinkk_logicalllly Aug 29, 2013 12:16 AM Flag

      Fantastic! A big THANKKS to the responders of this thread, whether you agree with me or not just about all of the points made are plausible, and I cannot argue with most based on what we know. However, let me pose this scenario which could explain why most of us are still lingering around the K watering hole. I've broken our plight down into 3 distinct areas of concern, you're encouraged to take on any or all of these areas if you choose, including adding other concerns as well.

      1. K the science. Not much disagreement here, even most of the laid off SVNT sales reps, in spite of their discontent for mgmt (and who doesn't), believe in K and it's unmet need. Frankly it's the primary reason my hat is still in the ring and will remain so until I see otherwise. Btw, I also believe that's why all of us are still here.

      2. K's market and market potential. This one is all over the place, but K is undeniably the most effective treatment for Tofy on the planet. It's definitely a specialty market which can become immensely profitable imo. Yes, we can talk about dialysis patients' use of K and other label expansion possibilities but just from what we "know" already and how it's being used "now", along with the pricing elasticity, there can be no denying of this value proposition as of "now".

      3. I strongly agree with Lempe, MJ and others that K goes only so far as long as SVNT (and it's mgmt crew) is at the controls, plain and simply it has to be in capable hands, EVERYBODY agrees with this premise, do we not? Yes, and then there is the mountain of debt and debt service, imo this issue is what's driving the reluctance of retailers from jumping in and staying in, but tutes still hold nearly 40% of the o/s shares, go figure.

      That said, here's what I know. You don't cancel your shelf regis., gut your sales force, and forgoe hiring a CEO if you're going it alone. SVNT "will" be sold that's crystal clear, so help me with this.........for how much?

      thinkk

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I believe EU is off the table for Savient as a stand alone company until sharp price increases are done. You can not negotiate with numerous parties while you raising a price every few months, however EU does have value for a potential buyer. Obviously 65 cents is a joke, but there is an explanation. Company has burned funds, retail and analysts. There is no real analyst coverage whatsoever to point the rest of the sheep in the right direction. Fund managers will not touch it with a 10 foot pole,, until there is clarity, their jobs are more important to them, then a risky possible 10 bagger. Retail sees the headlines like CEO is gone and company misses by 3 cents. Savient has become a show me the money company due to past sins and only time and execution will fix it. It is moving in the right direction, Q2 ASP numbers will be available in two weeks, price hike should hit any day and Q3 sg&a numbers will clarify a profitability trend, since most of the cuts were done end of Q2.

      • 1 Reply to lempe39398
      • thinkk_logicalllly thinkk_logicalllly Aug 29, 2013 12:36 AM Flag

        Great observation and summary lempe, I totally agree and NEVER would I suggest that SVNT should go it alone, on anything! In fact "partnering" with anyone should also be off the table for this co., but K in the EU is firmly in play imo, just not with SVNT. As I've mentioned on previous threads, all of the numbers are heading in the right direction, its like a passenger Jet idling on the runway before takeoff, all we're waiting for is a new pilot (Takeda, Sobi, SNY or whomever) to give it altitude.

        thinkk (more) not

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I think the only thing that you said that made some sense was about Takeda. If by some miracle there is an aquisition it would be Takeda , simply because the future of Krystexxa as an induction and maintenance therapy lies with K being delivered for first six months and then maintained on oral pills such as allupurinol.

      You synopsis is so flawed that you should change ur name to think_illogically. I mean didnt u read the 10q where it clearly says that EU partner negotiations turned out to be so complex that partnership has been shelved for short term and they dont know if that would be realised in the long term.

      Secondly, Krystexxa is not for gout it is for Refractory gout. A subset within a subset. Finally, there is a reason why there are no offers. When you can grab something out of an auction at dirt cheap prices for a worldwide market rights, why go for something that has soon going to have bank breaking 350 million debt on a 24 million annual sales. You dont need to be a doctor or a mathematician to understand this. Also, the investors are selling chunks of the shares in short packages and therefore the investors are getting rid of this too.

    • You expressed your own logic. Let me express mine.

      1) Q3 2013 vial numbers will show whether the significant pick up in Q2 2013 over Q1 2013 was just rebuilding of stock or actually an improvement in the overall trend. The increase from Q2 2012 to Q2 2013 was weak.

      2) "The deal has to be right for SVNT and be right for the would-be partner, it doesn't mean a deal is off the table" . It does not mean that there is anymore a deal on the table or ever was. LF is no longer a CEO of SVNT, he is a job seeker..

      3) "The gout epidemic is real and growing, especially with the aging baby boomer population, regardless the current size of this market, it's going to be HUGE". Really epidemic and huge, especially the type of gout that K is aimed at?

      4) "K is an extremely valuable asset in this market and this fact is not lost on big pharma, believe me. Yes, I know the back and forth chatter about Meeker, but he's here for a reason." Why hasn't a buyer been found yet? Where is the competition between the big pharmas bidding up the offering price for SVNT? Is it possible that the omnipotent Meeker has become by now3 disillusioned with the prospects of K?

      5) "ALL of them know that K is worth a LOT more than 65 cents. What everyone is missing is not "if" but "when" the right offer is accepted, don't kid yourselves, there are offers on the table imo" As you say, in your opinion .My opinion is that an acquisition price of $2/sh will be generous and agreeable to most shareholders.

      6)"please spare us with the nonsense". Do you think everything said on this board is nonsense but yours?

      • 4 Replies to c757172
      • C757,

        WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!

        "My opinion is that an acquisition price of $2/sh will be generous and agreeable to most shareholders."

        So, wrong let me count the ways how wrong that typical opinion is:

        First of all the "Company stock options" listed in the 10Q averages between "$3.73 - $5.89 per share". The middle ground of that alone is $4.81 Share. Meeker has an incentive to see $2.89.

        Second, I challenge anyone here to provide a realistic share price based on the customary 'present market value' approach. You can't! Too many unknown's, missing in the cookie cutter approach.

        Third, If a LONG TERM Stock Holders Class Action were to be formed, it would be based on the cost basis and share price of the average of the Class, not the present market value or ability of the Co to payout. That's the reason publically traded Co's carry the insurance...

        Way too many variables to put a share value on SVNT. This is a big reason for no partner or buyer yet. In the meantime, SVNT and 'K' can conceivably pull off BE on their own before any of these other doomsday scenarios play out. I firmly believe that, I think that's about as close as one can reasonably guess what Savient's doing and I'm sticking to this story to end.

        kg

      • c757......getting back to your "logic".

        1. Lempe has already addressed your "rebuilding stock" for q1 2013 comment so I won't go there, however when it comes to your view of q2 2013 vs q2 2012 numbers as being "weak", I have to differ with you there. So what you're telling me is a 52% increase in K revs with an increase in the number of vials sold with a depleted sales force is "weak"???? Sorry, but those numbers were a big upside surprise to me, even with the price increases. Unlike art, numbers are hard and cold, not much subjectivity ie...2 + 2 = 4, apparently not so to you when it comes to K.

        2. "LF is a jobseeker". No problem, I agree, but not with the statement he made, it made a lot of common sense.

        3. I assume you're agreeing with me re: the gout epidemic and mrkt size. Tophy is only a small portion of the overall patient base, I get that, but it's by far the most serious form of gout which will and does command much higher prices and thus margins. MJ has used the Acthar similiarity and I know you and some others don't like some of his posts but he is right on the money when it comes to the K and Acthar analogy.

        4. Your comment: "Why hasn't a buyer been found yet? Where is the competition between the big pharmas bidding up the offering price for SVNT? Is it possible that the omnipotent Meeker has become by now3 disillusioned with the prospects of K?" My reply? Patience grasshopper, patience.

        5. Your opinion about "$2 bucks/share?" OK, no problem, but even that's well North of 65 cents, correct? I have no idea what numbers are being bandied about, but 65 cents is worth cleaning out your kids' piggybank and rolling the dice with this one, I really like those odds. Thankks again for your input, let's keep the conversation going and share the knowledge.

        thinkk (more) not

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Really? There is no Krystexxa stock rebuilding, and you should know it. Savient books revenue when vial is shipped to end user and it's most likely, that funds will be collected. However, as I have said in the past, Q1 is always weak and most of the increase has to do with seasonality.

      • C757...thankks for your input and your opinions are duely noted. I will be responding later to each of the points you've made but now I'm off to an appt. I'll check in with you later.

        thinkk (btw, where did I say "everything" said on this bd is nonsense, where??)

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
SVNTQ
0.00190.0000(0.00%)May 30 3:56 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.
Groupon, Inc.
NasdaqGSThu, Oct 30, 2014 4:00 PM EDT
Flextronics International Ltd.
NasdaqGSThu, Oct 30, 2014 4:00 PM EDT