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SAVIENT PHARM INC Message Board

  • daytrader1954 daytrader1954 Jan 16, 1999 8:38 AM Flag

    Shares Short

    I read the article on Individual
    Investor
    Online (12/15/99) indicating this
    Company has been a
    top 25 pick
    previously. Their analyst
    is
    sticking with it to double in price
    during 1999 for a
    number of reasons.
    While looking at the profile on
    the
    Yahoo site I noticed there are aprox.
    4,000,000 or
    nearly 10% of the stock
    shorted as of early Dec. 98
    at $6.21
    People familiar with this stock
    are
    aware of this. My question is, If
    the price
    continues to rise, as several
    analysts predict, will
    this force the
    4,000,000 shares to be repurchased
    at
    some point soon? Thats a hell of a lot
    of shares
    and people that thought
    opposite. Any regulars to
    this board
    that care to give me their
    thoughts
    or predictions please post. I would
    definitely
    enjoy your feedback.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • If you read William O'Neil's book ( I think the
      title is "How to Make Money With Stocks") he describes
      price patterns typical of market winners. He is the
      publisher of Investor's Business Daily. I blieve that if
      you call and order a trial subscription, you can get
      a copy of the book for free.

      The cup and
      saucer pattern looks just like it sounds. The stock was
      up, went down, up for a short time, down a little and
      then rose above the latest high. Go to
      http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=120&chart=candle&chart1=bb&i0=1&i1=3
      &i2=4&i3=6&db=&s=linear&symbol=BTGC&time=day

      to view a recent chart. You could say that we have a
      cup and saucer formed between mid Sept and now with a
      buy signal when the stock rallied recently, but
      O'Niel likes shorter patterns, if memory
      serves.

      I would say we get a cup & saucer uby signal when
      BTGC rises above $8, but only if it does not dip below
      $5.50 first. IMHO

      JAGAD5

    • Product sales as a % of revenue continues to
      grow!!

      1993 74%

      1994 63%

      1995 77%

      1996
      85%

      1997 82%

      1998 91% (through 9
      months)

      This info came from 1997 Annual statement.
      If 91%
      holds through 12 months then 1999 should be an
      outstanding year!!

    • I believe that a great amount of the short
      position was related to the warrants. As an example, I
      owned the warrants and then shorted some stock against
      them. The warrants were trading at a very low premium
      and presented a way to leverage upside without a lot
      of risk by shorting some stock against the warrant
      position. I exercised all the warrants which covered the
      short. I expect that many other warrant holders did the
      same thing and this resulted in the relatively high
      number of shares shorted. With the warrants gone I
      wouldn't be surprised to see the short position greatly
      reduced without any covering trades.

    • II had an update on BTGC yesterday, 1/15. Views
      it as still undervalued with the war chest for
      acquisition increasing from the warrants for total cash
      holding of $75 mil and the Akzo insulin deal. Also the
      Woodhouse at ML continues to reiterate buy and sees $12 by
      year end.

      TA-wise, looks good with 3 days of
      ranges marching higher with higher highs as well as
      higher lows though this is apparent on the past 3 days
      of closing numbers. Also very short term, note that
      price increase in large increment at year end to find
      base around $ 6 3/4 which was not breached really but
      we see it higher from it.

      Most indicators
      are up except the laggers like MACD and some weighted
      stoch. Of concern is that ultimate is still trending
      down but all in all the combination of chart pattern
      and most indicators heading up indicates wind is
      behind us.

      Perhaps there were traders who bought
      in high 5's just couple of weeks ago cashing in as I
      suspect not many of us were slling our shares other than
      weak hands.

      With positivness in fundamentals
      and technical, better days ahead.

      Good luck to
      all longs!

    • I can't wait for the shorts to start buying. It
      could be the break we've been looking for.

      I
      like the stock not only because it has earnings, but
      it has $1.50/sh in cash and they generated $0.36 per
      share in free cash flow (TTM). If they invest that cash
      wisely, it could really give earnings a boost.


      Or, a this price, the $75m in cash they have may make
      them worth a buyout....

      The longs will have
      their day.

 
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