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Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • rookietradr rookietradr Jan 29, 1999 11:34 AM Flag

    RTQ 7 1/2!!

    Hope we can hit 8 on a mill.+ shares!!

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    • << I have not read the
      study you are
      referring to and would appreciate your summarizing the
      specifics of the
      option writing strategy in such study.
      >>

      The concept is very simple:

      Basically the
      theory is that there is a risk/reward line, that
      one
      should look at. To gain more return you have to be
      higher on
      the risk side. This doesn't mean that any
      risk will do though!
      You have to be ON the line,
      where market arbitrage forces are
      at work.

      By
      writing covered calls you are
      reducing your risk, and
      therefore your expected (!!!) reward.
      The fact that at a
      certain time it doesn't look so, doesn't
      mean that on
      the average this is what happens. If you rely on your
      feeling, ebay, yhoo, etc can be a better play
      ;)

      You can start from their (CBOE) WEB
      page:

      http://www.cboe.com/education/strategy/eo-2.htm

      However to really understand options, I'd recommend their
      course.

    • but as i said i maintain a core position for the
      longer term. trading this stock can practically support
      me with day to day living expenses. that may change,
      if this stock is ever discovered as truly being
      undervalued. but as long as it bounces around like it has it
      is a gold mine for a trader.

    • I am writing options at strike prices 25-50%
      above the trading price with expiration dates less than
      6 months out. This equates to IRR's from 60% to
      100% per annum. This is clearly not bond like returns.
      I am aware that I run the risk of the stock spiking
      to $15 or higher and that is why I write options on
      only a portion of my holdings and only when the price
      spikes closer to my perception of the FV. I have not
      read the study you are referring to and would
      appreciate your summarizing the specifics of the option
      writing strategy in such study.

    • buy LOW and sell HIGH.
      got it. ok, now go out and MAKE SOME MONEY!

    • My point was that buying after the price spiked
      because it was rising and selling after if fell because
      it was falling would have resulted in big losses in
      BTGC. You are suggesting the exact opposite which was
      my point - buying when the stock was falling and
      selling when it was rising. However, this might not work
      so well if the FV was still below the "low" price.

    • at this moment. The stock has been undervalued
      for quite sometime. The biotech boom is coming and
      this company hold great promise. Following your logic,
      you will probably sell this stock at $9. But this
      time, the stock could go over $15. If that happened,
      you will have to miss most of the run!

    • < If one buys and sells solely on the short
      term price movements one is likely to lose a lot of
      money >

      i couldn't disagree more. i hold a
      core position but trade BTGC based on technicals. if
      you look at a longer term daily chart and watch
      stochastics and RSI and buy when it's oversold and sell when
      it hits overbought levels it can be very profitable.
      for example, buying near end of december at 5.75 or
      so, selling at 8 in a week or so. then buying back in
      the 6.50 to 6.75 area in the past week and hopefully
      we'll not only see 8 again but perhaps move a bit
      higher. i think there may be some resistance in the
      8.50/8.625 area.

    • JW.CHARLES reiterated their buy opinion on BTGC
      on jan.8th. They must be pretty confident in BTGC's
      quarterly earnings to be drawing attention to themselves
      with their buy reiteration within 1 month of earnings
      release.(the stock price during their buy reiteration is
      approximately where it is now.)

    • A major move to the upside seems to be looming
      for BTGC. Many other biotech stocks have been showing
      strength recently and they possess strong technical
      pictures as well.....BTGC's stock action on friday was
      very bullish. The stock was up more than 1/2 a point,
      closed at its high and was accompannied with high
      volume. This type of heavy volume will typically precede
      news and/or a major stock price move........BTGC has a
      major wedge formation and a close above $8 will cause
      the stock to break out of this consolidation
      formation. When stocks breakout of these type of formations
      you will typically see the stock rally quickly. My
      guess is the rally would run to the next resistent
      level of $10. However, we well need a lot volume to
      break through $10.

    • expectations are .10 for the quarter, the stock is acting terrific most recently.

    • View More Messages
 
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